Late Saturday Evening April 18th Update

Good late Saturday evening, everyone. After we had a round of storms to start Saturday off, we actually saw partly to mostly sunny skies for most of the day. That allowed us to warm into the upper 60s and into the middle 70s as you worked into northeastern Oklahoma. As of late Saturday night, we have another round of rain and storms working in from the west. The latest radar is right below…

With an upper level low spinning out in western Kansas/eastern Colorado and a cold front that will work in from the northwest for Sunday, that’ll keep t-storm chances in the cards for us. After we get past the morning round of rain and storms, we’ll get a break by late morning and into the early afternoon. Any partly sunny skies that we see should allow highs to top out back around 71°. After 1 or 2 PM, we need to keep an eye out for strong to severe storms in the afternoon and into Sunday evening…

sundaypm

The big question regarding the severe chances hinges on how unstable we can get for Sunday afternoon. If things set up just right and we get our atmosphere in just the right mode, we’ll need to watch for storms that are capable of mainly large hail, heavy rain and some gusty wind. The best shot for strong to severe storms will be from 1 PM to 11 PM Sunday. The overall severe threat for our area is on the low side. You can see the breakdown below…

severethreat

Once we get to the 10-11 PM time frame Sunday night, the severe threat is out of here. You can see on the Future Track below how we quiet down around 10 PM…

sunday10pm

To start the new work/school week off on Monday, we’ll see mostly sunny skies but we’ll be cooler with a northwest wind. We’ll see highs in the lower to middle 60s on Monday.

21zmonnam

We’ll see other rain chances by Tuesday and Wednesday with highs projected in the 60s. We’ll get a break between rain chances on Thursday before we look cloudy and wet for Friday. At least next Saturday isn’t looking so bad with partly sunny skies and highs near 60.

Have a good night and a great Sunday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

Saturday (25th):  Warm with slight thunderstorm chances.

April 26th-May 2nd:

A cool start to the week behind the weekend storm system with thunderstorm chances.  Temperatures will slowly warm up through the week with slight thunderstorm chances by the middle of the week.  We should see warm temperatures heading into the weekend with slight thunderstorm chances.  Our severe threat will be over the weekend of the 2nd.

May 3rd-9th:

Warm temperatures through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday with a severe threat.  Warm temperatures continue the rest of the week and staying mainly dry.

May 10th-16th:

A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances and a severe threat on Monday and Tuesday.  Turning cooler for the middle of the week and drying out.  Warming up for the weekend and it should be fairly nice.

May 17th-23rd:

Another warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday that could be severe.  Staying fairly warm through the week with slight thunderstorm chances again by the weekend.

May 24th-30th:

A warm start to the week with slight thunderstorm chances.  However, better chances for thunderstorms with a severe threat on Monday and Tuesday as another strong system works through.  We will cool down a bit for the middle of the week but warm right back up for the weekend.  We will also see thunderstorm chances return for the weekend.

May 31st-June 6th:

A mild start to the week with slight thunderstorm chances.  I do think we will warm up through the week with a system passing through during the middle of the week giving us thunderstorm around Wednesday that could be severe.  We will stay warm into the weekend with slight thunderstorm chances.

June 7th-13th:

This will be a mainly warm week which is typical this time of the year.  The first half of the week should be dry.  The second half of the week I will be tracking a weak wave that could trigger a few pop-up afternoon thunderstorms.

June 14th-20th:

We will see a warm start to the week with a hot finish.  Slight thunderstorm chances will continue at the beginning of the week which would just be the afternoon pop-up storms.  The second half of the week will be hot and dry.

June 21st-27th:

This should be mainly a hot week with just a few afternoon pop-up afternoon storms the second half of the week as a weak system track across the northern plains.

When I say hot:  90+

When I say warm:  75-89

When I say mild:  60-74

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