Late Friday PM November 27th Update

Good Friday evening, everyone. We started our Friday out with plenty of rain for most of the area and even some freezing rain mixing in for areas mainly along and west of US 59 in southeastern Kansas. As far as I can tell, any ice accumulations have been very minor (a glaze at the worst) for spots that did see some freezing rain mix in. We’re not done with rain chances yet. More rain (even some freezing rain) is working in from the southwest on the radar below…

That is more rain that will fall on already saturated ground across much of the area. Going into Saturday, most of northeast Oklahoma, pretty much all of southwest Missouri and Bourbon, Crawford & Cherokee counties will continue with flood warnings…

flood

For the rest of southeast Kansas (and Washington county in Oklahoma), freezing rain and winter weather advisories are out until 6 AM Saturday…

winterwx

This mess is all due to the colder air behind the front off to our southeast. Couple that with more moisture working in along the front from the southwest, rain chances will still be around for the rest of the weekend…

setup

Let’s break down our setup for Saturday. The area of rain/freezing rain southwest of us will work through going through the overnight and into Saturday morning. Temperatures will hold steady overnight. Most of us will be in the middle 30s by sunrise, but others will  be close to freezing. The blue line I included on the Future Track below represents 32°. If you’re along and west (or left) of that line, you’ll have a better shot of some freezing rain mixing in overnight and into Saturday morning…

saturdayam

After we start Saturday morning, temperatures will warm only into the upper 30s to near 40° for the afternoon. It’ll still be cold, but that will be warm enough for most of (if not the entire) area to deal with just rain chances through the day on Saturday…

saturdaypm

As for expected ice accumulations with the overnight round of rain/freezing rain, I expect the worst accumulations to be just on the western fringe of our area. The Ice Tracker below wants a tenth to 2 tenths of an inch of ice west of KS 99. For the rest of SE KS that may see some freezing rain, we’re keeping expected amounts less than a tenth of an inch. Not a big ice storm, but could result in some slick spots on the road…

iceamounts

We keep rain chances around for Sunday and Monday. Between tonight and Monday, we could see another half inch to an inch of rain before the rain chances move out of here. From Tuesday on into next Friday, we’re cool but we’re drying out. For the latest on the long range forecast and the pattern, Doug has you covered on  headypattern.com

Have a good night and a great Saturday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

Remember that you can sign up for WeatherCall by clicking the WeatherCall link at the top of the page. WeatherCall, in our opinion, is the best tool on the market to keep you safe during severe weather.

Also we have our free WEATHER APP that lets you access our forecast, blog, radar and weather alerts. I think it’s a must if you own an Apple or Android phone.

LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES

Next Saturday:  Mild with slight chances for rain.

December 6th-12th:

A chilly start to the week with rain and snow chances to start the week.  Mild temperatures will return for the second half of the week with rain chances returning for the weekend.

December 13th-19th:

Mild with rain chances to start the week.  As colder air works in we could see rain or snow by the middle of the week.  Cool temperatures for the second half of the week with a second system and rain or snow chances by the weekend.

December 20th-26th:

Most of the week will be on the cold side with slight chances for snow on Sunday.  Better chances for snow will work in with a storm system on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Staying cool but dry for the holiday.

When I say hot:  90+

When I say warm:  75-89

When I say mild:  60-74

Chilly:  50-60

Cool:  40-50

Cold:  40 and below

Share!

    This entry was posted in Blog. Bookmark the permalink.