Friday PM December 11th Update

Good late Friday evening/early Saturday morning, everyone. Friday was not so bad. Unseasonably warm, but not bad. We had a high of 72° in Joplin with most spots ranging between the middle 60s and the middle 70s. We were 2 degrees away from tying the record of 74° of 1949! The last time we were this warm in December was December 3rd, 2012 with a record high of 73°. While the weekend started nice, rain and t-storm chances will be working in for today. We stay mostly quiet going into Saturday morning on the radar below…

I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a random shower by Saturday morning because of increasing moisture ahead of our cold front that’ll be around. Here’s how the surface map setup wants to look by 6 AM and it wants the front draped across KS…

frontsatam

Through most of the day, we’ll have mostly cloudy skies and the chance for scattered showers. Despite the mostly cloudy skies, we’ll have a good wind out of the south at 15-20 mph (gusts near 25). Ahead of the front, we should be able to get most spots near 70° for an afternoon high…

saturdayafternoon

After 6 PM and into Saturday night, that’s when we’ll have a good shot for t-storms. You can easily see that below…

tstormssatnight

If we had a shot of any strong to severe t-storms, I don’t think we’ll see a big outbreak by any means. I would put the timing of strong to severe t-storms between 6 PM Saturday and 2 AM Sunday. The main threats I’ll be looking for will be wind, hail and some heavy rain. The graphic below spells out how the threat looks for Saturday and early Sunday…

severethreat

Going into Sunday, we’ll have midnight highs in the middle 60s. After midnight on Sunday, the rain/t-storm chances and the passing cold front will cool us down throughout the day…

sundayrain

Before the system completely clears out late Sunday night and into early Monday morning, colder air will try to work in during that time. If moisture is still around, some spots could see the rain chances end with a rain/snow mix. No accumulation is expected with that and those chances look sparse as you can see below…

mondayam

For next week, we go back into the lower to middle 50s for highs on Monday and Tuesday. We’ll watch a few weak waves give us the slightest chance for a few snow showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mainly, we’ll just be cold with highs dropping back near 40°. Next Friday has us dry and partly sunny and cool with highs in the lower 40s.

Your long range forecast is posted below.  For more on upcoming storms and details go to headypattern.com

Have a good night and a great Saturday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES

Next Saturday:  Mild with slight chances for rain

December 20th-26th:

Rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Colder temperatures stick around for the rest of the week.  We will have slight chances for rain and snow on Christmas Eve and day.

December 27th-January 2nd:

Another cool start to the week with rain and snow chances at the beginning of the week.  We will warm up a bit late in the week with rain chances Friday and rain and snow chances on Saturday.

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