Christmas Day 2015 Update

Good Friday evening, everyone. I hope you all are having a Merry Christmas or a good Friday! Mother Nature helped out in terms of making it a good day, weather-wise. It wasn’t a white Christmas this year, but skies were quiet with highs mainly in the middle to upper 50s (some spots near 60°). We’re quiet as of Friday night and the radar below is quiet…

Our next system will be making a bit of a mess of things for the rest of the weekend. We have an upper low digging out of the Desert Southwest and our next frontal system off to our west. You can see the front out in the Rockies on the map below…

sat_sfc_map

As the system works in starting Saturday morning, we’ll see rain chances start to pick up by 6 AM…

saturday6am

Then the spigot really opens up for the rest of our Saturday. Plenty of rain (heavy rain possible) and embedded t-storms around with a high of only 61° for Saturday afternoon. No severe storms are expected, but we’ll be soaking through the afternoon…

saturdaypm

We continue with the rain and t-storms through Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night. Going into Sunday morning, we’ll have midnight highs around 45°. From that point on into Sunday afternoon, the clouds and the rain chances will mean dropping temperatures throughout the day…

midnightsunday

In fact, we’re still expecting colder air to work in on the backside of this system as we go through Sunday. That’ll mean we’ll try to start the transition to a mix of rain and sleet in our western counties as we go into late Sunday morning and into Sunday afternoon…

switchsunday

With the low pressure of this system wanting to push through western and central Missouri by Monday, we will still have a shot of some snow. With that track, though, the better chances for accumulating snow will be primarily west of U.S. 69 on Monday.

monday

Most of our area is under a flash flood watch until noon on Monday and with the expected rain amounts on the Rain Tracker below, I’m not surprised why that watch is out…

rainamounts

As far as any potential ice accumulation with the back side of the system working in Sunday and Monday, we’re keeping any amounts under .2″ and primarily west of Fort Scott, Girard, Parsons and Nowata…

ice

As far as expected snow amounts, the general trend has been that the best accumulating snow chances continue to shift to the west. If that holds up, places around Joplin, Stockton Lake, most of SW MO and NE OK may only see half an inch to an inch of snow at best. The amounts gradually pick up as you go north and west of Joplin and Pittsburg…

snow

We’re still a few days away from any snow potential, so we’ll keep our eyes on it. If the track shifts, if the available moisture changes, and/or if the amount of cold air coming in changes, that will shift snow amounts around. I’ll be on top of it. After we get this system out of here, we’re dry Tuesday and into New Year’s Day. Highs in the middle 30s for Tuesday and Wednesday with morning lows in the 20s. We start in the upper teens for both New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day with expected highs right around 30°.

Don’t forget that if you want the latest on the long-range forecast and Doug’s pattern, you can always head over to headypattern.com and see for yourself.

Have a good night and a great Saturday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

Remember that you can sign up for WeatherCall by clicking the WeatherCall link at the top of the page. WeatherCall, in our opinion, is the best tool on the market to keep you safe during severe weather.

Also we have our free WEATHER APP that lets you access our forecast, blog, radar and weather alerts. I think it’s a must if you own an Apple or Android phone.

LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES

Next Week: After our system leaves Monday, cold temperatures stick around through the week with slight chances for rain and snow by the weekend.

Jan 3rd-9th:

Cold with chances for rain and snow on Sunday and Monday.  Staying cool through most of the week again we will see another system working in with rain and snow chances on Wednesday and Thursday.

Jan 10th-16th:

Mild temperatures finally work in with some rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooling down for the weekend with rain or snow chances on Saturday.

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