Late Sunday Evening February 28th Update – Better Rain Chances Will Work In Soon

Good late Sunday evening, everyone. We had another mild day to wrap the weekend up. The northwest wind came in later than expected. Combine that with temperatures only starting in the middle 50s Sunday morning, that led to highs in the lower to middle 70s across the area. It’ll be cooler tonight but quiet on the radar below…

For the surface map late on this Sunday night, we’re saying goodbye to one front and watching the next one off to our northwest…

setup

Ahead of the front, we’ll be mild again with a south wind at 10-15 and gusts near 25 mph. After we start in the upper 30s Monday morning, we’ll go back to highs near 70° under mostly sunny skies Monday afternoon…

mondaypm

We cloud up Monday evening and into Monday night. At midnight Tuesday, we’ll already be at our expected Tuesday high of 56°. During the overnight Tuesday, especially after 2 AM, that’s when rain and t-storm chances will begin to develop and push through. The storms could get strong as we get closer to sunrise Tuesday morning…

tuesdaystorms

This is all part of the next cold front that will work through. We’ll also have a minimal threat for some severe t-storms early Tuesday morning. Let’s keep the treat south of 400 in Kansas, northeast Oklahoma and areas south of I-44 in southwestern MO. The timing should be between 2 AM and 7 AM Tuesday morning. If we were to see any strong to severe t-storms Tuesday morning, the main threats would be wind and hail.

severethreat

After we get the threat for t-storms out of here, I expect the skies to stay mostly cloudy through most of the day. We should keep the rain chances in here during the day Tuesday, but some pockets of cold air will work in. That could allow a few spots to see a quick little mix of rain and snow before the system completely moves out late Tuesday…

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_8

Beyond Tuesday, we’ll be chilly for Wednesday with highs in the lower 50s under partly sunny skies. There’s another chance for rain on Thursday before we see temperatures work back near 60° by the upcoming weekend.  Remember that if you want the latest long range forecast and all of the details on the Heady Pattern, Doug has you covered on headypattern.com

Have a good night and a great Monday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES

March 6th-12th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.  There is a slight chances we could see snow mixing in on Thursday.  Cooler and dry for the rest of the week.

March 13th-19th:  Cool with showers for the beginning of the week.  The second half of the week will be mild with thunderstorms working in for the weekend.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe.

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