Monday Evening February 29th Update – Severe Weather Season Starts Tonight

Good Monday evening, everyone. Nick here with the blog update for you this evening at Doug’s request. It looks like we’re having an early start to severe weather season with our next system bringing strong (possibly low-end severe) t-storms late tonight and into early Tuesday morning. As of this evening, nothing in our area on the radar below…

We’ll see the t-storm chances pick up as our cold front pushes in from northern and central Kansas. This is how the surface map should look going toward midnight Tuesday morning…

93fndfd_init_2016022912

With us ahead of the front, we’re warm enough and we’ll have enough wind and moisture in place to see a minimal to low severe threat during the overnight. The best severe threat is in northeast Oklahoma, but the southern half of the viewing area could see some potent storms tonight. Let’s keep the timing of the strongest storms between 10 PM tonight and 4 AM Tuesday morning. Tornado threat is looking minimal and the heavy rain, wind and hail threats are set at low…

severethreattonight

Let’s break down the Future Track. By 11 PM, we expect storms to already be out there in southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma and they’ll try to start pushing into southwestern Missouri…

11pmtonight

We’ll still see storms around by 2 AM and you notice the brighter colors on the future radar? That’s backing up the idea that we’ll see some strong (possibly severe) t-storms during the overnight…

2amtonight

As we work closer to sunrise (especially after 4 AM), that’s when we expect the severe potential to be mainly off to our east. With that said, we’ll still deal with good rain chances as you begin your day on Tuesday…

4amtuesday

After we get the rain out of here by the AM commute to work and school, we’ll gradually go partly sunny by Tuesday afternoon with highs back in the lower 50s. We’ll bounce back near 60° Wednesday with another shot for some rain Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. We’ll bounce back into the lower to middle 60s this weekend before another system could bring some rain chances by next Sunday and Monday.  Remember that if you want the latest long range forecast and all of the details on the Heady Pattern, Doug has you covered on headypattern.com

Have a good night and a great Tuesday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

Remember that you can sign up for WeatherCall by clicking the WeatherCall link at the top of the page. WeatherCall, in our opinion, is the best tool on the market to keep you safe during severe weather.

Also we have our free WEATHER APP that lets you access our forecast, blog, radar and weather alerts. I think it’s a must if you own an Apple or Android phone.

LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES

March 6th-12th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances Tuesday through Thursday.  There is a slight chances we could see snow mixing in on Thursday.  Cooler and dry for the rest of the week.

March 13th-19th:  Cool with showers for the beginning of the week.  The second half of the week will be mild with thunderstorms working in for the weekend.  Some of these We’lstorms could be strong to severe.

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