Late Sunday PM March 6th Update – Plenty of Rain/T-Storm Chances This Week

Good Sunday evening, everyone. We just finished putting the bow on our first weekend of March and it was a windy, dry and very mild weekend. Despite more cloud cover today, we had highs easily go into the lower to middle 70s due to the strong wind out of the south. We go into the rest of the night on the quiet side with not much on the radar below…

The setup below shows what will be changing our weather pattern up for much of the week ahead. We’ll have a cold front out west that’ll set up camp in the Central Plains from tomorrow through the weekend and we have an upper low pushing into northern California. Both of these systems will work together and ramp up our rain and t-storm chances…

setup

For most of Monday, I think most of us are in good shape. We’ll have mostly cloudy skies throughout the day and a south wind gusting up to 35 mph at times. There could be a stray shower early Monday morning, but there could also be a few spot t-storms Monday afternoon and into Monday evening. We’ll still be mild with highs near 70°…

monday

Our coverage of rain/t-storms will really pick up as we go through Monday night and through Tuesday. Here’s what the Future Track wants us to look like as we get into Tuesday afternoon…

tuesdaypm

It is possible we could see some strong t-storms with pockets of heavy rain as we go through late Tuesday morning and into Tuesday afternoon and evening. Beyond Tuesday, the upper low will dig through the southwestern U.S. and continue to funnel moisture our way through the middle of the week and into the weekend…

gfsSGP_500_avort_084

That means more rain/t-storm chances through Saturday with maybe a few showers Sunday before this system finally gets out of here. As far as expected rain amounts by the end of next weekend, here’s what the Rain Tracker thinks we’ll see by Sunday afternoon…

rainamounts

Those totals count for all the rain chances we’ll have this week. These rain amounts are a double-edged sword, for lack of a better expression. On one hand, it’s rain that we need since we’re behind by over 4 inches for the year so far. On the other hand, with most of the ground being so dry due to our lack of rain, it may not take much for flash flooding to become a concern later on this week. If we can’t spread out these rain chances, some spots could deal with flash flooding by the middle of the week. We’ll keep an eye on that. Even with the rain chances, we’ll keep temperatures pretty mild with highs in the 60s from Tuesday on into the weekend. For the latest on Doug’s pattern and the long-range forecast, Doug has you covered on headypattern.com.

Have a good night and a great Monday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES

March 13th-19th:  Mild with scattered storms on Monday and then again Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooler but dry the rest of the week.

March 20th-26th:  Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Another system works in on Wednesday with additional strong to severe storms.  The rest of the week will be cool and dry.

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