Monday Evening March 7th Update – Rain Chances Are Starting To Pick Up

Good Monday evening, everyone. Nick here with the blog update this evening at Doug’s request. It was another windy day with more cloud cover around. That meant lows started in the lower 60s and afternoon highs topping out near 70°. There were some showers earlier on the KS and OK side this evening. They have come and gone, but more will be working in on the radar below…

We’ll see our rain/t-storm chances thanks to a slow moving cold front out west and mainly because of our upper level low sitting out in the southwestern United States. It’ll follow a path through northern Missouri, but …

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With this setup not changing anytime soon, we’ll see rain/t-storm chances into tonight and Tuesday morning with lows only dropping back to 58°…

tuesday1am

We’ll have another good batch of rain and t-storms (some strong, possibly severe) through the day on Tuesday. With that and cloudy skies, don’t expect much of a warm-up with highs near 69°…

tuesday11am

It’s the same song and dance for Wednesday. More periods of rain and t-storms under cloudy skies with highs in the middle 60s…

wednesdayrainchances

We’ll continue with rain and t-storm chances all the way through Sunday. The rain amounts could certainly add up over the next several days. Here’s what the latest GFS run is showing in terms of expected rain amounts by this coming Sunday afternoon…

gfsSGP_prec_precacc_147

Rain amounts for the area by next Sunday could range between 1 and 4 inches total. These rain amounts are a double-edged sword, for lack of a better expression. On one hand, it’s rain that we need since we’re behind by over 4 inches for the year so far. On the other hand, with most of the ground being so dry due to our lack of rain, it may not take much for flash flooding to become a concern later on this week. If we can’t spread out these rain chances, some spots could deal with flash flooding by the middle of the week. We’ll keep an eye on that. Even with the rain chances, we’ll keep temperatures pretty mild with highs in the 60s for most of the week (except for a dip near 58° Friday) and into the weekend. We’ll at least be quiet by next Monday before slight rain chances return by the middle of next week. For the latest on Doug’s pattern and the long-range forecast, Doug has you covered on headypattern.com.

Have a good night and a great Tuesday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES

March 15th-19th:  Mild with scattered rain and t-storm chances Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooler but dry for the rest of the week.

March 20th-26th:  Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Another system works in on Wednesday with additional strong to severe storms.  The rest of the week will be cool and dry.

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