Late Tuesday Evening March 22nd Update – Red Flag Warnings and Thunderstorms for Wednesday

Good Tuesday evening, everyone. Stop me if you’ve heard this before… It was warm, windy and dry again today. After we started in the upper 40s and lower 50s Tuesday morning, the strong southerly wind warmed us into the middle 70s this afternoon. Even though the wind will keep at it through most of the day, we’re starting the late night and Wednesday morning quiet on the radar below…

Our next system is still strengthening as it eventually works in from the west. For most of Wednesday, we’ll still be ahead of the front like we were on Tuesday. That means a good south wind once again…

setup

With that south wind combined with another warm and dry day, red flag warnings will be issued again for most of the area from noon on Wednesday and expire as late as 10 PM Wednesday night…

redflagwarnings

The south wind and mostly cloudy skies means we won’t cool down very much by Wednesday morning. After we start near 59°, we’ll go party sunny by the afternoon with highs near 76°. If we had any t-storms chances try to sneak in Wednesday afternoon, it would be after 4 PM…

wednesday

Going into late Wednesday afternoon and into Wednesday night, that’s when the cold front out west starts pushing through. Ahead of the front, we’ll need to watch for any strong (possibly severe) t-storms. The Future Track by 7:30 PM Wednesday certainly backs up that idea…

wednesdaynight

If we had a severe threat, most of the area would have a minimal threat. It works up to a low risk once you get closer to Table Rock Lake in southwestern Missouri. Let’s keep the timing of the strongest storms Wednesday between 4 PM and midnight going into Thursday. If any t-storms were to go severe, the main threats would be wind and hail. I’m not too impressed with the tornado threat, so we’ll keep that minimal. With that said, Doug and I will keep an eye on the setup as we go through the day…

severe

After the system pushes through, we drop back into the 50s for Thursday and near 61° on Good Friday. We’re dry to start the Easter holiday weekend, but we’ll have another system bring rain chances for Saturday and Easter Sunday. We’re dry next Monday and Tuesday before another system works in by next Wednesday.

If you’re curious as to how we look going into the next several weeks, Doug has you covered with the long-range forecast and the latest on his pattern over at headypattern.com

Have a good night and a great Wednesday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES

March 28th- April 2nd:  After rain chances on Sunday, mild temperatures return for the middle of the week with thunderstorm chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-10th:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be strong to severe to start the week.  Temperatures will cool down a bit for the middle of the week with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Chances for thunderstorms return for the weekend.

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