Late Easter Sunday 2016 Update – T-Storm Chances In The Forecast

Good Sunday evening, everyone. Hopefully, everyone had a good Sunday and a happy Easter for those that observed the holiday today. It was interesting to start the day out. We had overnight and morning rain for most and snow for some spots northwest of Joplin and Pittsburg. The little burst of snow didn’t really amount to much and it was all gone by the time we saw the sun and temperatures warm up a bit for the afternoon. That system is out of here and we’re quiet tonight on the radar below…

With Sunday morning’s system out of here, how do we look going into Monday and the start of a new work/school week? Let’s start with the surface map below…

setup

Our next system out to our northwest won’t be an issue for us until we get into Wednesday. For tonight and Monday, our weather will be controlled by high pressure just to our southwest. With this keeping our wind light and our skies clear through the night and into Monday morning, most of us are under freeze warnings until 9 AM Monday…

freezewarnings

Regardless if you’re under the freeze warning or not, everyone will start cold Monday morning with lows near 30°. Once the sun rises, we heat things up quickly. With skies staying sunny and a south wind at 5-10 mph, we’ll be near 60° by noon and top out near 65° Monday afternoon…

monday

Tuesday is looking relatively quiet. A weak disturbance will pass us just to our northwest, but it might be close enough to get a spot t-storm going. Otherwise, we’ll be partly sunny, windy and mild with highs near 70° Tuesday afternoon…

tuesday

Going into Wednesday, we’ll keep an eye on how our t-storm chances will set up during the day. Ahead of the front, we’ll be very mild with highs going into the middle 70s. Going into Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, that’s when our next best shot for t-storms will work in. We’ll also have a low severe threat to contend with as well for Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night…

wednesdaysetup

So far, it looks like if any storms go severe Wednesday, we’ll mainly be dealing with wind and hail as our primary threats. However, I can’t rule out the chance for a few tornadoes. Doug and I will keep an eye on this setup as we go through the next few days. After that system is out of here early Thursday morning, we’ll keep things quiet going into next weekend. We’ll see highs go from the 50s on Thursday and Friday to eventually near 70° by next Sunday. For all of Doug’s long range forecasts, he has you covered over on headypattern.com

Have a good night and a great Monday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES

Next Week:  A cool start to the week but quickly warming up with scattered thunderstorms on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Staying mild the rest of the week with thunderstorms returning on Friday and Saturday.

April 11th-16th:  Mild with slight chances for storms on Monday, but a better chances on Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooling down the rest of the week.

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