Tuesday PM Blog: Severe threat for Wednesday PM

Good Tuesday afternoon!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been pretty good.  I am just getting some work done before I have to jump on a conference call and head to work.  So far it has been a pretty good day for us.  It is a little on the windy side, but temperatures are to bad.  We will jump into the lower 70s this afternoon with partly sunny skies.  Take a look at the radar below.

Not to much is going on for us right now, but we do have a system rolling in tomorrow.  On that note, let me address the madness of social media.  You wouldn’t believe how many messages I get about post people see on facebook or twitter.  When we have a severe threat working in, severe weather posts and pictures start flying.  Most of these are from storm chasers across the US.  I have great respect for storm chasers and I personally would love to be able to storm chase, but I have to be at the station.  But a lot of storm chasers like to post the end of the world severe weather maps.  On the other hand, a lot of them do post maps from severe weather sites and also meteorologist.  However, you wouldn’t believe how many I see that are hyped posts.  Here is the bottom line, don’t believe everything that you see on the internet.

So lets jump into it.  Here is our storm system tomorrow.

500 Tomorrow

You can see the energy of the system in Nebraska.  You can see how the system is leaning forward or a positive tilt.  This actually isn’t the best set-up for severe weather.  The better set-up is a negative tilt or if it is leaning backward.  However, we have other ingredients we need to watch.

Winds

We will have a south or a hair SSE wind.  This will give us pretty good shear (wind changing with height).  This means when storms fire up they will have a pretty good chance to become supercells.  Plus, their is a nice finger of unstable air that will develop.  On the other hand we will have a capped atmosphere which will try to keep the storms from firing up.  So this is a very tricky storm to figure out like all severe weather events.  So here is the break down.  During the morning hours we will have the clouds and a few random showers.

morning precip

These will push on by and we will break out with partly sunny skies and should heat up into the mid to upper 70s.  Dewpoints will press well into the upper 60s to lower 70s allowing ample moisture to press in.  After 5pm, isolated storms will fire along the dry line out in SE KS.  Here is the key, they will be isolated, this mean hit and miss.  This will most likely occur from Topeka south into the Flint Hills.

evening precip south

I expect isolated storms to pop-up that could be come severe.  The main threat will be hail and gusty winds.  We can rule out and isolated tornado as these storms work east through SE KS.  Remember again, these are very isolated, a lot of you won’t see a drop of rain.  They will continue very isolated into NE OK as well with the same severe weather threat.  As the evening works on, these storms will work NE into NW AR and SW MO.  The may try to form into broken lines of storms.  The chances for people to get rain will be a little higher in SW MO as they try to for into a line.  This should be mainly after 8pm with the main threat being high wind and hail.  I will keep the tornado threat on the low side once again.  However, I am watching everything.

Remember for all of my long range heady pattern you can go to headypattern.com

#headypattern

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

Remember that you can sign up for WeatherCall by clicking the WeatherCall link at the top of the page. WeatherCall, in our opinion, is the best tool on the market to keep you safe during severe weather.

Also we have our free WEATHER APP that lets you access our forecast, blog, radar and weather alerts. I think it’s a must if you own an Apple or Android phone.

LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES

Next Week:  Mild with slight chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Another shot for storms on Friday.

April 11th-16th:  Mild with slight chances for storms on Monday, but a better chances on Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooling down the rest of the week.

Share!

    This entry was posted in Blog. Bookmark the permalink.