Early Monday AM April 25th Update – Fairly Quiet for Monday Before Tuesday’s T-Storms

Good early (EARLY) Monday morning, everyone! The weekend turned out to be pretty good. We ended it on a quiet and warm note with highs in the upper 70s to near 80° on Sunday. Any t-storms yesterday stayed well to our north and west across the state of Kansas. Rain and t-storms may be on the radar below by sunrise, but they should not be an issue for us down here…

Let’s talk about our setup. For today, we’ll still be ahead of a front that’s stuck out in western Kansas. That keeps the southerly flow going to ensure another very mild, if not warm, day across the area. I’m watching a developing cold front out west across Utah and stretching down to California. When that front meets up with the system in the Central Plains, that’s when our t-storm chances ramp up…

setup

Before that happens, we’re in good shape for today. We’ll be partly to mostly cloudy to start the day and gradually turn partly sunny by the afternoon. There could be a spot shower or t-storm this morning and this afternoon, but those chances are pretty slim. We’ll mainly stay dry with highs topping out near 78°…

monday

Going through Monday night and Tuesday morning, we could have a few spot t-storms under mostly cloudy skies. I think we start Tuesday mainly on the dry side with lows only in the upper 60s. Tuesday could be quite warm with highs going into the middle 80s. Once we hit Tuesday afternoon, that’s when we’ll keep our eyes off to the west. The Future Track wants strong and severe t-storms to get going as early as 3 or 4 o’clock Tuesday afternoon…

tuesday4pm

The storms that develop out west will head our way as we continue through Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. The Future Track certainly wants things active around here by 7 PM Tuesday evening…

tuesday7pm

We do need to keep an eye on the severe threat through Tuesday. Our area is under a low to elevated severe threat for Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. As of this blog, I think the timing for our storms will be between 3 PM Tuesday and midnight Wednesday. We’ll have all modes of severe weather possible. We’ll watch for storms capable of high wind, large hail and some tornadoes. You can see the threat outlined below…

tuesdaythreat

In regards to the tornado threat, I think the highest tornado threat stays just to our west. By the time the storms work into our area, though, the tornado threat should slowly drop. That’s why I have the tornado threat elevated for us along with the wind and hail threat. The tornado threat should eventually go from elevated to low as storms work in, but we’ll definitely have to deal with wind and hail as well.

We’ll see t-storms continue on Wednesday with the severe threat shifting into Missouri Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. After we get a break in the action on Thursday, we’re still set to have another system bring rain and t-storms back in for the weekend. We’ll keep you updated on everything over the next several days.

Have a good night and a great Monday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES

May 1st-7th:  A mild start to the week with temperatures warming up by the middle of the week.  Another system will work in on Wednesday and Thursday with another severe threat.  Temperatures cool back down a bit toward the weekend.

May 8th-14th:  Warm with a slight chance for thunderstorms on Sunday.  Warm temperatures continue through most of the week with good chances for thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday.  We should have good chances for severe weather through the period.

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