Tuesday AM Blog: Severe weather update

Good early Tuesday morning!  I hope your week has started off great so far.  Mine is going pretty good, just busy of course with the chances for severe weather.  Anytime we have a storm system working through, I am a busy boy, lol.  Today, well won’t be any different.  We have had 4 severe weather events so far this spring season.  When I say an event, that means somewhere in the viewing area we have had severe thunderstorm warnings or tornado warnings.  Usually in an average spring season we see about 8-10 events.  I went for 10-14 events this spring and it looks like this should be number 5 today with a strong storm system working into the area.  Take a look at the radar below.

Scattered thunderstorms will get going this morning along the I-70 corridor north of us and eventually dive SE into central parts of MO.  This is actually very critical for our forecast today.  Everything that happens this morning will tell me what is going to happen later today and tonight.  If this batch of storms becomes a huge complex, it will drop an outflow boundary (like a cold front) across the region and enhance severe weather this evening.  If it doesn’t become a huge complex, well we are just back to square one and have to deal with the storms moving in from the west.  So lets break this down.

Afternoon surface

Here is the surface map this afternoon.  I put on the possible outflow that could develop that we need to watch.  Most likely some sort of outflow will develop today, it is just a question of how strong and big will it be.  For us with severe weather, the smaller the better.

cape

Here is our cape.  Our cape shows me how unstable the atmosphere should become.  You can see the most unstable air is from central KS south in central OK.  If we get that weak outflow boundary, that will keep the most unstable air from push back north into north central KS.

So I expect scattered thunderstorms, mainly to our north during the morning hours.

3pm-6pm:  A few pop-up thunderstorms as the possible outflow interacts with the daytime heating.  If we don’t have an outflow, I still think we will see a few pop-up thunderstorms.  A few of these could be severe with the main threat being wind and hail.

6pm precip

I circled the spots where scattered storms should start popping up.

6-9pm:  Severe storms really get going across central KS and south into central OK.  This will become severe quickly and most likely have very large hail with some of the supercells containing tornadoes.  These storms will quickly push into the region.  As they work in the tornado threat will slowly drop but it will still be around.  We will have a high wind and hail threat with and elevated tornado threat.  This means the tornado threat won’t be as high as it is out west but we need to watch it.

9pm-12am:  Thunderstorms continue with the main threat switching to wind and hail.  We will still have a tornado threat, but it will drop to a low threat at this time.

midnight precip

Most of the storms should work out by 1-2am and I should be able to issue the go to bed alert.  I will keep you updated on this.

Also remember for all of my long range forecast and all the details on my heady pattern, go to headypattern.com

#headypattern

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

Remember that you can sign up for WeatherCall by clicking the WeatherCall link at the top of the page. WeatherCall, in our opinion, is the best tool on the market to keep you safe during severe weather.

Also we have our free WEATHER APP that lets you access our forecast, blog, radar and weather alerts. I think it’s a must if you own an Apple or Android phone.

LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES

Next Week:  A nice mild start to the week with chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooling back down and mainly dry heading into the weekend.

May 8th-14th:  Warm with a slight chance for thunderstorms on Sunday.  Warm temperatures continue through most of the week with good chances for thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday.  We should have good chances for severe weather through the period.

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