Early Monday AM May 9th Update – T-Storm Chances Pick Up for Today

Good early Monday morning, everyone. I wanted to wait and see what the latest model guidance had to say before I wrote the blog detailing our setup for today. Hopefully, everyone had a good Mother’s Day. Even though we had partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies along with some rain and a few t-storms, we were able to get highs in the lower to middle 70s yesterday. Our better shot for t-storms comes in today. If you’re catching this early in the morning, you may not see much in our area on the radar below…

Our chance for t-storms today will be firing up ahead of a dry line and a cold front off to our west. You can see the front and dry line on the surface map below stretching from Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas from 10 PM last night…

surfacemap

There is a shot for some scattered rain and t-storms as we get the morning underway. Some of you may see rain and a few t-storms in the morning and some of you won’t. We all should start under mostly cloudy skies with lows around 64°. The wind will be out of the south at 10-15 with gusts going near 25 mph at times…

mondayam

After we see our first shot for some rain and t-storms in the morning, we’ll see a break in between during the afternoon. Given we see enough pockets of sun, that should be able to get us up to 75° for afternoon highs today…

mondaypm

If you noted on the Future Track above to the west of us, that will be the t-storms that should develop as we get the late afternoon underway. I’d say those will be fair game to start firing up between 2 and 4 PM. As they fire up and start working east, they should be near the Joplin metro, the KS/MO state line and near Grand Lake between 6 and 8 PM…

mondaynightstorms

By 10 and 11 PM, the storms that will be in SW MO will either be moving out or weakening as they move away from the better environment to keep them going. As for our severe threat with the way things look this morning, we have a low risk of severe weather for the entire area. We’re keeping the best timing for strong to severe t-storms between 3 PM and 11 PM. I think the main threats with the strongest of the storms this afternoon and tonight will be large hail and high wind. The tornado threat is low, but we’ll keep our eye on it as e go through the day…

mondayseverethreat

After we get the storms out of here Monday night, we’ll trend towards partly to mostly sunny skies for Tuesday. The cold front won’t be through the area yet, so we’ll be warm going into Tuesday afternoon. I think we should be able to go into the lower to middle 80s for highs on Tuesday…

tuesday

We’ll have strong to possibly severe t-storms return on Wednesday followed by a break on Thursday. For the upcoming weekend, we’ll have t-storm chances return on Friday with mostly cloudy skies and rain chances for Saturday and Sunday.

Remember for all of Doug’s long range forecasts and latest on severe weather events, he has you covered over on headypattern.com

Have a good Monday, everyone!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES

May 16th-21st: Nice mild temperatures settle in through the middle of the week.  Warming up with thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

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