Tuesday Evening May 10th Update – T-Storm Chances Working Back In

Good evening, everyone. Nick here with the blog update today at Doug’s request. After yesterday’s t-storms, we were quiet and warm today with highs well into the middle 80s. Keep in mind that normal highs for early to middle May should be in the middle 70s, so it felt like more like a June day around here. As we get the evening started, we don’t have anything in our area on the radar below…

Most of the evening starts dry and quiet, but as we sit ahead of our next front, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a slight chance for a few isolated t-storms for tonight. They shouldn’t be severe but they could be a bit strong. Most of us should stay dry going into tonight and early tomorrow morning…

HRRRMW_prec_radar_009

Our better shot for t-storms on Wednesday will pick up as our next cold front works in from the northwest. Here’s where the front should be by 1 PM Wednesday…

wednesdayfront

Ahead of the front, we’ll be dry for most of the day as we warm right back up. After starting in the middle to upper 60s in the morning, we’ll have highs climb up to about 85°…

NAMMW_sfc_temp_027

We’ll be dry for most of the day due to a warm layer of air aloft we call the cap. As the cap holds for most of the day, that prevents any moisture from lifting up and eventually developing into t-storms. With that said, as the cap holds during the day, we’ll be warm and we’ll be unstable. I haven’t showed a CAPE map in a while but this shows how unstable our air will be tomorrow and how much energy the eventual t-storms will have to work with. By late Wednesday afternoon, CAPE values could be as high as 4,000 to 5,000 joules per kilogram…

NAMMW_con_sbcape_027

With that amount of instability, that sets us up for a low severe threat with the strongest storms capable of large hail, high wind and heavy rain. Note how the winds at the surface will trend generally southwest. That’s how the winds look as you go up into the atmosphere. That means we don’t have a high likelihood of any rotating t-storms, so that keeps the tornado threat low. As for when t-storms could get going, they could start to fire up as early as 4 or 5 PM Wednesday…

NAM4KMMW_prec_radar_027

By 7 PM Wednesday, expect a good amount of strong to severe t-storms to work through the area ahead of the cold front…

NAM4KMMW_prec_radar_030

Our t-storm chances and our severe threat will continue through Wednesday night and be out of here by 2 AM as we go into Thursday. Beyond our t-storm chances Wednesday, we’ll watch other storm chances on Friday. We’ll also have another system to watch as we go into next Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. We’ll keep you updated on everything as we go through the next several days.

Don’t forget Doug has you covered on the long-range forecast and the latest on his pattern over on headypattern.com

Have a good evening!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES

May 16th-21st: Nice mild temperatures settle in through the middle of the week.  Warming up with thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

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