Early Monday AM May 16th Update – Have the Rain Gear Handy Today

Good early Monday morning, everyone. Even though we started last weekend with rain and t-storms, we ended it on a mostly dry and quiet note. It was cool to start Sunday morning with lows near 40° (almost tied the record of 39° set back in 1959) but we rebounded to afternoon highs in the middle to upper 60s. We’ll be a little cooler for today since we’ll deal with plenty of clouds and rain throughout the day. As of early Monday morning, you can easily see the rain filling in and working in here on the radar below…

There are two reasons why we’re seeing the rain chances start to pick up. The first is explained with the surface map below. There’s a warm/stationary front off to our south. Even though it won’t completely sweep through the area, it will lift close enough to our area. That keeps the moisture in play…

setup

In the upper levels, a disturbance was stretching from Idaho down to New Mexico early this morning. As that continues to work in, that will get enough moisture to lift up and keep rain chances around for most of the day…

disturbance

Put that whole setup together, and that leads to a day where it’ll be a good idea to have the rain gear with you. We’ll have rain around underneath cloudy skies to start the drive to work with lows near 51°…

mondayam

Through the rest of the morning and for the afternoon, we’ll continue to see light to moderate rain work through. I don’t think we’ll see much in the way of t-storms but don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder during the afternoon. Other than the good rain chances, we’ll stay cloudy. That will mean afternoon highs for today only topping out into the middle 60s…

mondaypm

We’ll go into early Tuesday morning with some t-storms working in and t-storm chances continuing through Tuesday. I don’t see a severe threat here for Tuesday as I expect those chances to stay south of us. After a break on Wednesday, we’ll see rain chances back in on Thursday followed by t-storm chances on Friday. For the weekend, Saturday looks dry and mild. For next Sunday, I think there’s a slight chance for a few t-storms but I don’t see a severe threat for that day. Otherwise, next Sunday should be partly sunny and warm.

Remember that if you want the latest on Doug’s pattern and the more of the long-range forecast, he has you covered over on headypattern.com

Have a great Monday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES

May 23rd-28th:  Warm with thunderstorms chances with two systems working through from Monday through Wednesday.  We will have a severe chances with both of these systems.  Staying warm the second half of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

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