Early Monday AM May 23rd Update – Storm Chances Start to Pick Up

Good early Monday morning, everyone. We’ve made it through the weekend mostly on the quiet side. After we started with some rain on Friday, our Saturday and Sunday turned out great with temperatures rebounding near 80° yesterday. Thankfully, we did not have to deal with any t-storms on a day like yesterday. With that said, we’ll have t-storm chances for much of the week ahead. There are rain and some t-storms to our west. Have a look at the radar below…

There could be a few showers to start this morning out in our western counties. Otherwise we start the day partly to mostly cloudy and mild with lows near 62°. The storms out west fired up ahead of a stationary front and dry line. You can see that clearly on the surface map below…

setup

That system will slowly edge closer to us as we proceed through the rest of the week. Combine that with a disturbance in the upper levels, we’ll have t-storm chances pick up later on today. Now, how they unfold, how strong they get and how numerous they could be all depends on how we look by the start of Monday afternoon. The Future Track below is suggesting that we could have enough instability to overcome warm air aloft and get numerous strong to possibly severe t-storms going for the afternoon. I do expect highs to top out near 81°…

mondaypm

On the other hand, I’m coming across other computer models like the NAM 4KM below that suggests that the setup struggles a bit to come together. It’s suggesting that some t-storms could try to break through a strong cap (layer of warm air aloft that prevents t-storms from rising up and getting going) but they may not be as numerous…

nam4kmmonday

Regardless of how the afternoon will unfold, we do have a chance for t-storms today with a low (and conditional) severe threat mainly on the KS and OK side. If we saw any strong to severe t-storms this afternoon and into Monday night, I think the best timing would be from 4 PM to midnight. I’m keeping all the threats low and I think the big issues (IF the storms can get together) would be wind and hail. Again, this threat is conditional and will be better determined later on today.

severethreat

I think a better shot for some severe weather comes with the t-storm chances on Tuesday and especially by Thursday and Friday. Thursday and Friday are days we’ll keep an eye on since we’ll have a better setup in the upper levels…

thursdaysystem

Beyond Friday, I think t-storm chances could continue through Saturday, Sunday and on Memorial Day. Regardless of the t-storm chances, we’ll be warm all week with highs bouncing between the middle and upper 80s. Along with the south wind, we’ll see additional moisture work in. That could also result in some warm and humid days as we work closer to the weekend.

For the latest on Doug’s pattern and the long-range forecast, he has you covered over on headypattern.com

Have a good Monday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM

Next Week:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms through the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Our severe threat will increase for Friday and Saturday.  Temperatures will be warm with highs in the 80s through the week.

May 29th-June 4th:  The rest of the holiday weekend looks nice with warm temperatures and mainly dry conditions.  The warm temperatures stick around through the week with a weak upper level system sticking around firing off a few pop-up showers from Tuesday through Friday.  However, severe threat will be low.

June 5th-12th:  Another warm week across the area with scattered afternoon thunderstorms which is very summerlike this week.  We will have these chances from Sunday through Thursday with another slow moving wave. On Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will cool down a bit but warm right back up for the weekend.

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