Memorial Day 2016 AM Update – We’ll Warm Up Again Today

Good early Monday morning, everyone. Hopefully you all will have a good Memorial Day and honor those who have fallen while serving our country proudly in the armed forces. We kept things quiet and warm Saturday. We had a few t-storms in our far western and southern counties while the rest of us stayed quiet and warm yesterday. We’ll be warm again today and we’ll also contend with t-storm chances today. Have a look at the radar below…

Let’s see where we stand in terms of our setup. The surface map from 10 PM last night had the warm front lift back north of the area. That will easily keep us warm again today. That front also allows some more instability, lift and moisture to work in and that will result in t-storm chances for today. However, note the cold front out west across Montana stretching down to California…

setup

That front will work through the area on Wednesday and should leave us dry as we go into Thursday and the upcoming weekend. Until it gets here, though, we’ll be warm again today. After we start in the middle 60s, we’ll warm back up close to 83° under partly sunny skies. There’s a slight chance for a few showers or t-storms this morning, but I expect our better chance to work in by this afternoon…

memorialday

Like we’ve been stressing over the past several days if you have plans for today, there will be dry time mixed in with the t-storm chances. The t-storms will also be scattered so some spots will see t-storms today while others may not see a drop. The Future Track below illustrates that idea pretty well…

mondaypmstorms

We look quiet for Monday night and Tuesday morning before we warm back into the lower to middle 80s Tuesday afternoon. With no big change in the setup Tuesday afternoon, we’ll have another shot for scattered t-storms…

tuesdaypm

When the cold front starts working in from the west on Wednesday, that front will give us our best shot for widespread t-storms for the whole week. You can see that idea illustrated clearly below on the future NAM radar valid at 4 PM Wednesday…

wednesday

We may not cool down a lot on the back side of the cold front, but we should be drier from Thursday on into the coming weekend. We’ll go from 75 on Thursday before we go back near 80° and into the lower 80s by Friday and the weekend.

Remember that Doug has you covered over on headypattern.com if you’re interested in his latest thoughts on the pattern and the long-range forecast

Have a great Monday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM

June 5th-12th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances continuing through the first half of the week.  Cooler temperatures work in for the middle of the week before warming back up for the weekend.

June 13th-18th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday, then staying warm through the week before hot temperatures arrive for the weekend.

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