Early Monday AM June 13th Update – T-Storm Chances for Most of the Week

Good early Monday morning, everyone. Hopefully, everyone had a good weekend even though we had to end it on a warm and somewhat stormy note yesterday. We actually needed some rain since we spent a good portion of the past several days on the dry side. We’ll continue with rain and t-storm chances pretty much every day this week. We could even be dealing with a possible severe threat within the next few days. For early Monday morning, there are storms out west and some rain/t-storms to our south on the radar below…

If we had anything on the radar early this morning try to work in by sunrise, it would be the rain and some t-storms to our south. While some may see some rain and a few t-storms to start the morning, others (if not most) will start dry and partly cloudy. Our next best shot for t-storms will come again in the afternoon as we warm up…

mondayt-storms

After we start this morning in the upper 60s to near 70°, we won’t waste any time warming things up throughout the day. We’ll be in the middle 80s by noon and we should top out near 89° this afternoon…

mondayplanner

Going into Tuesday, we’ll pretty much hit the repeat button as we trend a little hotter. We’ll have afternoon highs top out in the lower 90s on Tuesday as our next system tries to work in from the west. Below is how the surface map setup should look by 7 PM Tuesday evening…

tuesdaysetup

With the dry line setting up to the west of us as we’re hot and humid, that dry line will be the focusing point for some strong to possibly severe t-storms as we go into late Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night. The Future Track below valid at 8 PM Tuesday really backs up that idea…

tuesdaysttorms

Some of the t-storms we’ll see for Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night could be strong to severe. If we look at the map below, our area is under the low severe threat (slight risk) while the better severe setup will be an issue for the Kansas City area northward…

tuesdayseverethreat

For our area, I think the big issues with any t-storms we get for Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night will be wind and hail. I expect the tornado threat to be low, but Doug and I will keep an eye on things as we go through the next few days. After Tuesday, the t-storms won’t do us a lick of good in terms of cooling us down. We’ll stay in the middle 90s through the middle of the week with t-storm chances trying to taper off by the start of the weekend. For now, let’s keep Saturday and Father’s Day dry with highs in the lower 90s.

Also, if you want all of Doug’s updates on our pattern and new cycle taking shape for the next 13 months, check out headypattern.com

Have a good Monday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM

June 19th-25th:  Warm through the first half of the week with the heat kicking in the second half of the week.  A few thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday but the rest of the week looks mainly dry.

June 26th-July 2nd:  A warm to hot week with an upper level wave hanging out most of the week.  This means we will have pop up afternoon thunderstorms most of the week.

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