Early Tuesday AM June 14th Update – Hot Today and T-Storm Chances Pick Up

Good early Tuesday morning, everyone. We had a bit of a quieter start to the work week compared to how we ended the weekend not too long ago. It was very warm today with highs in the middle to upper 80s even with scattered pop-up t-storms around the area. We’ll trend hotter today and we’ll watch for better t-storm chances try to materialize later this afternoon. For the early morning, any rain and t-storms on the radar below stays out to our west…

So, we know it’ll be another mild and somewhat humid start to the day with lows near 71°. Even with partly sunny skies for most of the day, it’ll be a hot afternoon with highs near 91°…

tuesday

But what will trigger our possible t-storm chances late this afternoon and into out Tuesday night? The two features I’m watching today starts with an upper level low coming out of the Desert Southwest…

upperlow

Back down to the surface, we’ll  have a dry line out west sneak closer into central to eastern Kansas throughout the day. You can see where the dry line was below late Monday night…

setup

Now, the morning is looking dry and we keep things quiet for most of the afternoon today. It’ll be after 3 or 4 PM that we’ll have to keep a close eye out to the west. That’s when t-storms will try to get going…

4pm

Because of the upper level wave and the dry line interacting with our unstable, moist and hot air mass, we’ll have to watch for strong to severe t-storms late this afternoon and into Tuesday night. You can see the breakdown of our severe threat on the map below.

Capture

The better shot for severe weather today will be from the Kansas City area northward. For  us, we have a fairly low severe threat. With that said, I want to keep an eye on any t-storms in our area between 3 PM and midnight going into Wednesday. If we had any storms in our area go severe, I would keep a close eye out for wind and hail. The Future Track below wants the better action to stay north of the area while we see some strong to possibly severe t-storms by 7:30 this evening…

730pm

Once we get these storm chances out of here by early Wednesday morning, we stay hot for the rest of the week. Even with some possible pop-up t-storms for the middle of the week, we’ll have highs go into the middle (maybe upper) 90s. We trend drier for the upcoming weekend, but we’ll stay hot with highs in the lower 90s through the weekend and into next week.

Also, if you want all of Doug’s updates on our pattern and new cycle taking shape for the next 13 months, check out headypattern.com

Have a good Tuesday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM

June 19th-25th:  Warm through the first half of the week with the heat kicking in the second half of the week.  A few thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday but the rest of the week looks mainly dry.

June 26th-July 2nd:  A warm to hot week with an upper level wave hanging out most of the week.  This means we will have pop up afternoon thunderstorms most of the week.

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