Early Sunday AM June 19th Update – Quiet for Father’s Day

Good early Sunday morning, everyone. It was still a bit hot for our Saturday afternoon, but it was CERTAINLY better than where we’ve been for the past 2 or 3 days. Instead of highs pushing in the middle to upper 90s with it feeling like we were in triple digit heat, we had highs right around 90. With a bit of drier air in place yesterday, it just felt like we were in the lower to middle 90s. Not much of a cool down, but it was certainly nice to take the edge off the heat a little bit. To start Father’s Day out, we’re quiet on the radar below…

We don’t have any big changes for our weather setup today. Starting with the upper level setup, we have a low digging into the Pacific Northwest while we are still under the influence of an upper level ridge. With this setup holding for much of the week ahead of us, that will keep temperatures on the hot side…

uppersetup

Down at the surface, we have another front off to our northwest. Early this morning, the front is draped across the northern Plains and northern Rockies and pushing some t-storms through Montana and North Dakota…

setup

That front wants to stop by here as we go through the week ahead of us. Unfortunately, if you want the rain sooner rather than later, that front is going to take its time to get here. As it stays northwest of us, we stay quiet today. After we start in the upper 60s to near 70 this morning, we’ll keep skies partly sunny throughout the day. The Future Track below wants a few showers (maybe a t-storm) to pop up during the afternoon, but I expect us to stay dry. We’ll be in the middle 80s by the noon hour and have afternoon highs go right back up near 90…

sunday

We stay quiet to start the new work week with highs in the lower 90s Monday and Tuesday. So far, it looks like Wednesday will be the hottest day of the week with highs planning on topping out near 95…

wednesday

By late Thursday, Friday and Saturday, that front up north should pay us a visit. Not only will that try to cool us back down a bit by next weekend, that’ll bring our next best shot for rain and t-storms. The GFS below backs that idea up especially by early Friday morning…

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_22

Hopefully, that setup holds since we could use any rain that we can get before we head into one of our drier months of the year. So far, it doesn’t appear as though it would be a severe setup. With that said, don’t be surprised if we get some good t-storms by the time the front interacts with the heat and humidity that will be back in here.

If you want all of Doug’s updates on our pattern and new cycle taking shape for the next 13 months, check out headypattern.com

Have a good Sunday and a good Father’s Day!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM

June 24th & 25th:  The start of the weekend looks mainly dry and very warm.

June 26th-July 2nd:  Warm to hot week with an upper level wave hanging out most of the week giving us scattered thunderstorms across the region.

July 3rd-9th:  A warm start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Mainly dry through the week.

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