Late Monday PM September 19th Update – When Do Rain Chances Work Back In?

Good late Monday evening, everyone. It was a quiet but somewhat hot start to the work/school week as we count down the final days of the summer season. It felt like summer today as afternoon highs topped out around 90°. Not only that, dew points in the 70s felt like we were in the middle to upper 90s this afternoon. We’ll generally hold onto that pattern for most of this week. The radar below had one lone t-storm around the Kansas City metro area, but we should stay quiet overnight…

Any t-storms that developed Monday evening stayed well to our northeast along a cold front. You can see it plotted out on the surface map below. The front stays just north of us tomorrow, but we’re watching the backside of the system. Once the cold front out around Idaho, Nevada and California develops, that will be the front that will work in and bring t-storm chances back in here…

setup

We keep things quiet in the short term. It’ll be a mild start for Tuesday morning as lows drop back to around 70°. With partly to mostly sunny skies for the afternoon and a south breeze at 5-10 mph, we’ll have highs back in the lower 90s across the area…

tuesdaypm

The same overall story applies for your Wednesday. After we start mild Wednesday morning, partly to mostly sunny skies will be the rule of thumb for the afternoon. We may be a little cooler, but we’ll still be pretty warm with afternoon highs in the upper 80s…

wednesday

We keep things quiet again for Thursday as we keep our eyes on the cold front out west. It will start working into western Kansas by Friday afternoon, but another key player will determine how fast the front works through. By Friday, we’ll have an upper level high develop in the southeastern United States…

friday

That eventual upper high will end up slowing the eastward progression of the front. Based on how things look, we should keep Friday dry and warm again with highs in the upper 80s. For now, I’m expecting the front to work in close enough to bring in t-storm chances starting Saturday afternoon…

saturday

Depending on how the upper high holds together and how fast it works to the east, it may take at least a few days for the front to clear out. That’s why I’m expecting rain and t-storm chances to be around starting Saturday afternoon and lasting through Sunday and Monday. If we play our cards right, we can try to get temperatures behind the front to drop into the lower 80s by early next week. For the latest on Doug’s pattern and how we look beyond the next 7 days, he has you covered over on headypattern.com

Have a great Tuesday, everyone!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM

Next Week:  A mild start to the week with a warm finish. Rain chances on Sunday, Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.

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