Late Saturday PM October 15th Update – Switching Seasons Next Week

Good Saturday evening, everyone. It sure was windy today, but we kept things quiet from the skies above. Thanks to that good south wind, we saw highs warm up around 80°. Keep in mind that a normal high should be 72° for this part of October. We will eventually trend down over the course of the week. In fact, we’ll be switching seasons this week as we’ll go from late summer right back into fall! For now, we’re quiet on the radar below…

Regarding our surface setup, a few features easily explain why we were windy today. We have a fairly strong front north of us. Along with that, high pressure was sitting over the nation’s capital. Both of those systems brought our southerly wind into play today and that will continue for the next few days. Looking off to our west, our next front is working into the western United States. That front will really change our weather up by mid-week…

setup

Before that front gets here, it’ll be a mild night and warm again for your Sunday afternoon. After we start at 68° in the morning with partly cloudy skies, we’ll eventually turn mostly sunny with highs back near 87°. We’ll have a south wind at 10-20 mph throughout the day, but gusts will occasionally peak around 30 mph…

sunday

We stay warm and quiet for Monday and Tuesday to get our work/school week started. That front out in the western United States starts working in as we go into late Tuesday and especially Wednesday. I’m keeping us dry for Tuesday, but that front will start to bring t-storm chances back into the area Wednesday afternoon…

wednesday

That front keeps rain chances going through Thursday and could stick around as late as early Friday morning. Behind the front, we’ll have quite a cool down on the way. I have us in the upper 50s for Friday afternoon with Friday night and Saturday morning looking… cold. Doug alluded to this idea over the past few days and it’s still looking like a good possibility. Could Saturday morning be our first frost of the fall season? Looking back on some of the numbers, we’re pretty much due for our first frost…

firstfrost

For a frost around here, we want to see temperatures drop in to the middle 30s overnight and into the next morning. Last fall, we didn’t see temperatures drop into the middle 30s until October 29th. Normally, we should have our first 35° low or cooler (frost territory for us) around October 20th. If we see temperatures drop into the middle to upper 30s (38° for Joplin) on Saturday morning, October 22nd could be our first frost of the fall season. Late next weekend and into next week, we will trend a little warmer before rain chances sneak back in on that Wednesday.

Remember that Doug has you covered over on headypattern.com if you’re interested in his latest thoughts on the pattern and how we look over the coming weeks and months.

Have a good night and a great Sunday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM

October 23rd – October 29th:  A cools tart to the week with a warming trend through the week. Rain chances with our next system from Wednesday through Saturday.

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