Late Sunday PM October 16th Update – Keeping Warm For Another Day

Good Sunday evening, everyone! We’re still dealing with a warmer than normal pattern as we head into a new work/school week. Have a look at where we topped out today and where we could end up Monday afternoon…

warmstart

For the middle October, we should be seeing highs in the lower 70s. Instead of afternoon highs around 71°, the Joplin Regional Airport topped out at 87° today. Tomorrow, we continue with the above-normal trend while we possibly break a record. Monday’s record high of 88° was set back in 1964. I wouldn’t be surprised if we broke that record with highs trying to reach 89°.

For the rest of the night, we’ll stay mild but we stay quiet on the radar below…

The surface map has changed a bit compared to yesterday. We’re still seeing a good southerly wind driven both by high pressure off to our east and our next front to the northwest…

setup

Our southerly wind will be driven more by the front as it edges closer on Monday. We stay ahead of the front and that keeps us dry, warm and windy. I think the Future Track below is underestimating temperatures for Monday afternoon, but we will definitely be warm once again. After we start near 70° in the morning, afternoon highs will top out near 89°. Mind the southerly wind for your Monday. Sustained winds will be mainly between 15 and 25 mph while gusts could be as high as 40 mph…

monday

After our warm Monday, our front will start working in on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some scattered t-storm chances will be around for mainly Tuesday afternoon, but our better rain chances still look set for Wednesday under mostly cloudy skies…

wednesday

The front clears out on Thursday and we’ll see skies gradually go from partly sunny to mostly sunny. Behind the front, we’ll see the fall air work back in. I expect afternoon highs on Thursday to top out in the middle 60s. Going into Thursday night and Friday morning, that should be our coolest night of the week with lows dropping into the lower 40s…

fridayam

The latest run of weather models are still trying to figure out how the cool down will play out. For now, that scenario takes any frost concerns off the table, but we’ll still keep an eye on things for all of you with green thumbs out there. The upcoming weekend isn’t looking shabby. We’ll stay mostly sunny for the weekend with afternoon highs in the middle to upper 60s on Friday and near 73° for both Saturday and Sunday. We’ll stay quiet to start next week before rain chances sneak back in by the middle of next week.

Remember that Doug has you covered over on headypattern.com if you’re interested in his latest thoughts on the pattern and how we look over the coming weeks and months.

Have a good night and a great Monday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM

October 23rd – October 29th:  A cools tart to the week with a warming trend through the week. Rain chances with our next system from Wednesday through Saturday.

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