Late Monday PM December 12th Update – Staying Cold for the Next Few Days

Good Monday evening, everyone. Thanks to stubborn cloud cover that moved in sooner than expected, it was a struggle to warm up today. We did have some clearing skies this morning, but that had us dropping into the lower 20s. Even with the clouds today, we did manage to get highs into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Going into the overnight, we’ll hold onto the cloud cover as some showers will develop on the radar below…

Have a look at the surface map below. Our incoming cold front will be able to hold onto the clouds overnight and get some rain going in spots. Once the front is through, the high pressure behind it will keep us quiet and cold for most of your Tuesday…

setup

Our best shot for any rain with this front will be during the overnight before the morning drive gets underway. Have a look at the Future Track below. Any scattered showers that develop should stay as rain. As long as rain chances are around, we shouldn’t have any cold pockets aloft or at the surface to worry about freezing rain, sleet or snow. So, just some scattered showers mainly on the Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas side before sunrise…

earlytuesdayam

With some clearing behind the front, we should have overnight and morning lows drop to the upper 20s to near 30°…

tuesdaylows

Even though the Future Track below wants plenty of sunshine for your Tuesday afternoon, I’m holding onto some of the cloud cover for Tuesday. We should have partly sunny skies with not much of a warm up on tap. With a north wind at 5-15 mph, Joplin should top out around 38° while the rest of the area will have highs in the middle to upper 30s…

tuesdayhighs

We stay quiet and cold for Wednesday and Thursday. Starting on Friday, we’ll have clouds thickening up as our next system starts to work in. Here’s the projected surface map by 6 AM Friday…

9jhwbg_conus

Ahead of the system, we’ll have clouds picking up along with some rain chances possible Friday afternoon and going into Friday night. Despite the clouds, we’ll continue to warm into the 50s by Friday night. Then, the focus will shift to Saturday. Keeping in mind that the fine details on Saturday have not been figured out yet, here’s how this weekend system could unfold here…

saturdaymix

We may start warm enough for some rain chances Saturday morning, but temperatures are set to plummet throughout the day. We could see the rain switch to freezing rain and sleet Saturday afternoon. Going into Saturday evening through early Sunday morning, any moisture still around will switch over to snow before this clears out. Behind the front, we’re looking at quite a cold punch. Have a look at possible Sunday morning lows…

gfsmw_sfc_temp_138

Yep… You’re seeing that correctly. If the forecast holds, we could have lows drop into the single digits Sunday morning with highs topping out only near 20° Sunday afternoon. We’ll try to trend back to normal after next Monday. For the latest on the long-range forecast and Doug’s latest thoughts on the pattern, he has you covered over on headypattern.com

Have a good night and a great Tuesday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  Cold start to the week, then milder temperatures return later on with rain chances by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

December 26th-New Years Eve:  A mild start to the week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cold and dry the rest of the week.

January 1st-8th:  A mild start to the week with slight chances for rain on Monday.  Then cold temperatures work in with slight chances for snow by Saturday.

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