Tuesday Evening December 20th Update – Staying Quiet until the Christmas Weekend

Good Tuesday evening, everyone. Nick here with the blog update for this evening. After this past weekend, we continue to head in the right direction as far as temperatures go. With plenty of sun today and highs topping out in the middle to upper 40s, we definitely had a good thaw and a good chance to melt the snow around here. We’ll keep things dry for tonight on the radar below…

Even though we stay quiet tonight, it will be cold once again for tonight. After we start in the middle to upper 20s for Wednesday morning, we should have another decent warm up for the afternoon. I think the RPM below is being a little too cool regarding afternoon highs for Wednesday, but we do trend warmer. Afternoon highs on Wednesday should top out mainly in the lower 50s…

wedhighs

For Thursday, we’ll trend a little cooler thanks to a quick-moving cold front that will pass through. You can see that for yourself on the surface setup below for Wednesday evening. Although it will have some moisture to result in more cloud cover, we stay dry with this front. Afternoon highs on Thursday will be back into the lower to middle 40s…

thursdayfront

We could have some rain start to sneak back in for Friday as we warm back into the middle to upper 40s, but we’ll set ourselves up for some better rain chances for the holiday weekend. Christmas Eve should have us mostly cloudy with a few showers around and highs in the lower 50s. Going into Christmas Day, it’ll get a little interesting around here. Look at the surface map setup for 6 AM Christmas Day below…

9lhwbgloop

Instead of a white Christmas with a cool or cold air mass in place, we’ll have a quiet start Christmas Day with lows around 50°. Going into the afternoon, the warm front continues to lift north and we actually have a pretty mild Christmas afternoon on tap. Highs should go into the lower 60s! Keep in mind that we should be in the middle 40s for a normal Christmas Day around here…

gfsmw_sfc_temp_123

While we’ll be warmer than normal with this system, we’ll also have to deal with rain chances as we go through Sunday. Not only that, we could be looking at t-storm chances (maybe some strong t-storms) as we get into Christmas afternoon…

stormschristmas

We’ll have time to watch the setup and see if we have to worry about severe weather. Behind that system, we’ll trend cooler and quiet to start early next week. We’ll also keep an eye on a few systems as we head towards the New Year. Remember that you can get Doug’s latest thoughts on the pattern and his long-range forecast over on headypattern.com

Have a good night and a great Wednesday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM

December 26th-New Years Eve:  A mild start to the week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cold and dry the rest of the week.

January 1st-8th:  A mild start to the week with slight chances for rain on Monday.  Then cold temperatures work in with slight chances for snow by Saturday.

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