Tuesday Evening January 10th Update – Weekend System Starting to Come Into Better Focus

Good Tuesday evening, everyone. Nick here with the blog update this evening at Doug’s request. It was another windy day, but that really helped us warm up today! After we started in the lower to middle 50s this morning, the good southwest wind warmed us up to 67° in Joplin. Our highs in the middle to upper 60s today are what we usually expect in early to middle April, not early January! It won’t be long until we have winter slamming back in here. For now, we’re quiet on the radar below…

The wind may have temporarily calmed down this evening, but it’ll pick back up out of the south later on tonight. That means another night with our lows of 43° at midnight and we’ll warm back into the lower 50s by the morning drive. Even though we’ll go from partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies during the day, the south wind at 10-20 mph will allow highs to push near 69°…

Once we get Wednesday evening started, that’s when our Arctic front will work in from the north. You can see that game plan below on the surface map setup by 6 PM Wednesday…

That means we’ll have cloudy skies on Thursday with midnight highs near 60°. Once we get Thursday morning underway, temperatures will just tumble as the colder air works in through the day. We stay dry for Thursday, but we need to watch for moisture to develop along the front as we go into Friday morning. You can see how one model, the NAM below at 6 AM Friday in this case, wants a fine line between rain and freezing rain in our area…

We expect our rain chances late Thursday night and into Friday morning to start as freezing rain. Then, we do expect temperatures to start warming up for some. Who should warm up back near or above freezing by Friday afternoon? That’s one detail the models are still trying to figure out. You can see below some model output for noon on Friday showing surface temperatures. You can see the Canadian model’s output at noon on Friday…

our in-house model…

the GFS model…

and the NAM…

The 32° line (or the freezing line) is one of few details that are still being sorted out. As for how things look at this point in time, we expect areas along I-44 and south to switch over to rain as early as Friday afternoon. The farther north you go from 44 as Friday rolls along, the warm air will struggle to move up. Some spots will have rain going into Friday afternoon and evening while others will have freezing rain continue…

With our best chance for freezing rain (maybe even a little sleet) looking like late Thursday night through early Saturday morning, we laid out how the ice potential is setting up below…

Areas around Grand Lake, McDonald County, Barry County and points south, you should mainly get rain out of this system. Between I-44 and up to Independence, Parsons, Lamar and Greenfield, you all could see some light ice accumulations before most of you switch over to rain. From Fredonia, Neodesha, Pittsburg, Nevada and Stockton Lake up north, you could get a moderate amount of icing that will definitely make travel dangerous and power outages possible.

We’re still a few days out from the system, so some parts of the setup could change. We’re going to keep a close eye especially on the temperatures for late Thursday night through early Saturday morning. If the warmer air lifts more north, we’ll shift ice expectations north. If the colder air could come in stronger, we may have to shift everything south. As long as you keep checking back in with us, you’ll know what will be coming your way.

Once Saturday gets underway, we all should be warm enough to deal with just rain for Saturday and Sunday. After this system gives us some t-storm chances on Monday, the system will clear out. Tuesday looks quiet with partly sunny skies and we will be cooler behind the system with highs in the middle 40s.

Don’t forget that Doug has his latest thoughts on the pattern and the long-range forecast over the next few months over at headypattern.com.

Have a good night and a great Tuesday!

Nick

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BELOW BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN:

Here is your 7-day forecast:

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LONG RANGE FORECAST: Based off of the HP(Heady Pattern)

SLIGHT CHANCES:  MEAN IT IS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT WILL GIVE US SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS. 

IF I DON’T SAY SLIGHT:  THAT MEANS THIS IS A STRONGER SYSTEM

Next Week:  A cool start to the week with rain chances into Monday.  Warming up for the second half of the week with rain chances by Saturday.

January 22nd-28th:  Rain chances on Sunday and Monday with chilly temps.  Warming up again late in the week with rain chances Thursday through Saturday.

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