Friday Evening Blog: The heat continues, some storms and your long range forecast

Good Friday evening!  I hope your week was great and you looking forward to the weekend. I know I am, I actually think I will hit the lake for a day or two.  So of course, I am going to give you the lakes forecast.  We have been staying dry, even though there are storms just to the SE of the region.  Take a look at the radar below.

We will mainly stay dry for the weekend.  However, it will be on the hot side.  Take a look at Saturday.

We will have heat indices up around 100 degrees.  Much of the same on Sunday, temps pressing the mid 90s with the heat index around 100 degrees.  If you are hitting the lakes, there is your forecast.

So how long will the heat stick around?  Here is the problem.

We are still in the same pattern the same cycle that fits the Heady Pattern since last September.  However, the next cycle will start forming over the next two months.  So the same waves our rolling through, but we are in the summer version.  We have this huge high pressure over us and it continues to give us the heat and humidity.  This will stick around into August.  We will have a few cooler spells but not many.  You can see the storm system rolling in the NW US.  This system next will be shoved into the northern plains but close enough to give us some weak waves with chances for showers and thunderstorms.  Take a look my long range forecast below.



Here is your 7-day forecast:

Lets check out the Heady Pattern and your long range forecast.

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July


Next Week:  Hot with temperatures into the 90s through the week.  With our weak waves rolling though the northern plains, we will have chances for isolated storms each day.   Severe weather index:  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Lets go with 1’s each day.

June 17th-23rd:   A warm start to the week with hot temperatures returning for the weekend.  When I say warm, I am talking about 80s.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Friday and Saturday.  Severe weather index:  1’s on Sunday, Friday and Saturday.

June 24th-30th:  A hot week with a few thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Severe weather index:  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Sunday and Monday.

July 1st-7th:  Hot all week with pop-up storms each day.  Severe weather index:  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s through the period.

July 8th-14th:  Hot through Wednesday, but warm temperatures return for Thursday through Saturday.  A few thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Wednesday and Thursday.

July 15th-21st:  Hot most of the week with thunderstorms chances on Monday and Tuesday, then Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s the days with thunderstorms.

July 22nd-28th:  Another hot week with pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s thunderstorm days.




Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

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