Friday Blog: Relief from the Heat? Long range forecast!

Friday Question.  Would you rather have a summer with a dry heat and 105 each day?  Or would you rather have a summer like this one with highs near 100 and a ton of humidity with heat indices around 105-110 each day?  Let me know, send me your responses to Meteorologist Doug Heady on Facebook.

Good Friday morning! Wow, almost the weekend again.  I have been working hard all week on well work and my side long range forecasting business with my business partner Bryan Busby(mentor and Chief meteorologist at the ABC station in KC).  So, it has been a very busy week.  I am looking forward to the weekend.  I am going to head down to the Table Rock with the family and do a lake weekend.  We will have some scattered thunderstorms, but I swear my boat misses me.  I haven’t had a chance to take her out for 4 weeks.  Oh and she is named EF-5, surprise surprise.  As long as she is running we get along fantastic.  If anything ever goes wrong with her, well like any relationship we get into it for a week, ha ha.

Well we know it has been super hot and dry.  Even though we had a few storms on Thursday and even a few landspout tornadoes, we need much more rain.  A landspout tornado is rare here, but we do get them.  They are very weak circulations much like a dust devil but aren’t connected with a supercell like traditional tornadoes, but can still have winds at 50-60 mph.  Take a look at our drought tracker.

Check out the stats below.

This year:  Just shy of 17″ of rain

Average: 25″

Last year at this time:  32″

So what about today?

This will be hit and miss storms just like we have seen all week.  You can see that there isn’t much on the radar right now below.

On Saturday, a front will get a little closer to us and I think the storms will be a little bit more numerous, especially areas north of I-44.  However, temperatures will press 100 over the next 4 days with heat indices around 105-110.  So if you are going to be outside, drink plenty of fluids.  So what about the Heady Pattern? Is this going to break?

Next week it does get a little better.

Look at next week. The upper level high that is over us now pressed back to the west.  This will allow upper level waves to pass through with scattered showers and thunderstorms, but more importantly, this will drop our temperatures into the 80s for a few days which we greatly need.  Now this is right on track with the Heady Pattern.  However, the new cycle has already began.  I am working on hard on nailing this down which I promise will have down in the next 3 weeks.  I have a model that I have developed that allows me to pick out the cycle very early ahead of the new pattern developing which is still two months away.  I know to you guys this means nothing, but to me it is ground breaking.  I can already tell you the Fall will have bigger temperatures swings with much more rain.  The winter won’t be as cold as the last winter, however we will have much bigger storms systems and snow.  Also next spring will be much more active with a lot of severe weather events.  Next summer won’t be near as hot and we will have a lot more rain through the summer.  I have so much more to come on all of this.  Check out my long range forecast below and have a great Friday and weekend!



Here is your 7-day forecast:

Let’s check out the Heady Pattern and your long range forecast.

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July


Next Week:  A hot start to the week, but 80s will work in for the middle of the week and last mainly into the weekend.  Thunderstorms chances will continue just about each and every day as a front will hang out near the area.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Lets just go 1’s each day as it is hard to get severe weather with this heat, but a few episodes wouldn’t surprise me. 

July 22nd-28th:  A warm start to the week with highs mainly into the 80s.  However, the extreme heat with 90s and near triple digits returning for the second half of the week.  We will have scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Then another slight chance on Saturdsay.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Lets go 1’s on thunderstorms days.

July 29th-August 5th:  Mainly a hot week with highs in the 90s or 100s.  Slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday the 5th.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1 on Saturday.

August 6th-11th:  A hot start to the week with a storms system with scattered storms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  This will bring the 80s back in through the middle of the week and really sticking around into the weekend.  Slight chances for at least random pop-up storms each day.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Sunday and Monday.

August 12th-18th:  The heat and humidity return with highs into the 90s if not 100s through the week.  Mainly a dry week

August 19th-25th:  A hot first half of the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  A few pop-up storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

August 26th-September 1st:  A hot week with pop-up storms on Sunday, Thursday and Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on the thundestorm days.




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