Friday Evening Blog: Higher rain chances! New pattern setting up! Long range forecast


Good Friday evening!  We made it to the weekend.  I have noticed that the weeks are flipping flying on by.  Can it actually already be mid July.  Wasn’t it just Christmas!  At least it is the weekend.  I am going to head down to Table Rock with the fam and get some good boating time in this weekend.  However, I am going to have to dodge the scattered storms.  They will be more numerous than what we have had over the past couple of days.  So first off, take a look at the radar below.  We have a very weak frontal boundary laying across central KS and north central MO.

Some of these scattered storms will work into SE KS and NE OK by the morning hours.

These scattered storms will stick around into the afternoon and early evening.  Again they will be hit and miss, but we really need the rain.  If you have outdoor activities this weekend, don’t cancel them, but watch out for the scattered thunderstorms.  Here is your day planner for Saturday.

I do think late Saturday night and Sunday morning, additional scattered thunderstorms will pop-up.

Then again, partly sunny, hot and humid on Sunday with highs in the upper 90s.  The same broken record will return again with pop-up afternoon thunderstorms on Sunday.

So lets jump into next Tuesday.  Look at the upper level map.

Our killer hot and humidity high presses back west.  We are still going to be hot, but not near as hot.  Also this allows little waves to rotate around the high in our neck of the woods giving us scattered thunderstorms, which we greatly need.


Here is your 7-day forecast:

What is going on with the Heady Pattern.  We are at a very interesting and fun time for me as we are currently switching from the old 47-48 day cycle into the new cycle.  Remember, the pattern (meaning how storm systems react) doesn’t fully set up until the beginning of October.  However, it isn’t just a stop and go, it is a morphing that takes place over about a 4-6 week period.  Now the cycle (length of time that systems repeat) doesn’t set-up at the same time as the pattern.  Years ago I wanted to figure out why.  So I have researched it and I have it pretty well figured out.  There are several factors that I look at which are different each year to show me when the cycle is setting up.  Finding the cycle length is the next tricking step, which is even harder when you are morphing from one pattern to another.  So what is the trick to that, develop and algorithm or a model for personal use to help me give you guys the most accurate long range forecast.  I had to get some mathematical help on getting this going as that wasn’t my field of experti.  I have been perfecting this over the past 2 years and have it right where I want it and excited to use it over the next two months.  So here our the topics for next week blogs.

We will look into the changes we will see for August and September.  How will the new pattern interact with at least a weak El Nino over the next 10 months. 

Remember, my long range forecast is below.  Have a great and safe weekend.


Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July


Next Week:  A hot start to the week, but temperatures will cool a bit for the middle of the week.  Looks like we will sit in the upper 80s to near 90 for a couple of days before the heat returns over the weekend.  Chances for thunderstorms will stick around just about each and every day.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Lets just go 1’s each day as it is hard to get severe weather with this heat, but a few episodes wouldn’t surprise me. 

July 22nd-28th:  A hot start to the week with warm temperatures working in for the middle and later half of the week.  When I say warm, I am talking about 80s to near 90 degrees.  Thunderstorms chances on Monday and Tuesday, then again by the weekend.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Lets go 1’s on thunderstorms days.

July 29th-August 5th:  Mainly a hot week with highs in the 90s or 100s.  Slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday the 5th.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1 on Saturday.

August 6th-11th:  A hot start to the week with a storms system with scattered storms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  This will bring the 80s back in through the middle of the week and really sticking around into the weekend.  Slight chances for at least random pop-up storms each day.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Sunday and Monday.

August 12th-18th:  The heat and humidity return with highs into the 90s if not 100s through the week.  Mainly a dry week

August 19th-25th:  A hot first half of the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  A few pop-up storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

August 26th-September 1st:  A hot week with pop-up storms on Sunday, Thursday and Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on the thundestorm days.




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