Wednesday AM blog: A few more thunderstorms, extreme heat and long range forecast

Good Wednesday morning!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been pretty good.   It is already Wednesday and flying right on through the week.  So did you get rain?  Well about half of us got at least sprinkles on Tuesday.  The other half is watching the yard turn even more brown and crunchy.  It is going to be hot again today.

Now we are going to have a few scattered storms around this morning and then again this afternoon.  Take a look at the radar below.

We will have additional pop-up storms this afternoon.  I also think a some scattered tonight and a random one on Thursday.  However, the heat is really going to kick in on Thursday and Friday.  Check out Thursday afternoon.

We will still be hot over the weekend, but lower 90s instead of near 100 degrees.  However, there are a few changes down the road, especially the second half of next week.  This is right on track with the Heady Pattern, we will cool back down into the 80s for highs.  However, at the same time, we are starting to see some minor changes as the new cycle is now taking place.  But you can see the cooler temps next week.

With the upper high pressing back west, it allows a little cooler air to slide in.  We will go right back to the extreme heat for the beginning of August.  However, like I said the new cycle is taking shape.  I am super excited about some changes we have just around the corner.  More to come.



Here is your 7-day forecast:

We will look into the changes we will see for August and September.  How will the new pattern interact with at least a weak El Nino over the next 10 months. 

Remember, my long range forecast is below.  Have a great and safe weekend.


Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July


Next Week:   A hot start to the week, but cooling down the second half of the week into the 80s.  Rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday, then back in by the weekend. This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1’s on thunderstorm days.

July 29th-August 4th:  Heating right back up to the 90s to near 100 degrees.  Slight chances for thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday then again by Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Sunday and Monday, 1 on Saturday.

August 5th-11th:  A hot start to the week but a warm finish.  Hit and miss storms each day.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Just 1’s on the severe weather chart.

August 12th-18th:  The heat and humidity return with highs into the 90s if not 100s through the week.  Mainly a dry week.This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  

August 19th-25th:  A hot first half of the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  A few pop-up storms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

August 26th-September 1st:  A hot week with pop-up storms on Sunday, Thursday and Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on the thundestorm days.




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