Tuesday Morning Blog: More showers and thunderstorms. Heady Pattern update. Your long range forecast.

Good Tuesday morning!  Well I have been out of town with the family.  We did some lake time and also White Water.  So, my son wanted a hamster.  I told him if he would go down ALL the slides I would buy him one.  Well!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh comet, welcome, I think.  Lets go over rain chances, next system, the Heady Pattern and dig into the fall and winter.  First, take a look at the radar below.

A few scattered showers will continue this morning, but the better chances late today and the evening hours.  First off what is causing this?  Take a look at the map below.  You can see the weak upper level low right over the central plains.

Lets go back one cycle.  You can see we had a stronger ridge but still the weak wave across the central plains. I will explain here in one second.

Lets go back two cycles.  You can see a much stronger jet stream but still a weak wave.

Lets go all the way back to last August.  Remember, the Heady Pattern states the cycle starts in the summer.  Here is proof the cycle starts before the pattern.  I can give so many examples of this, but this will do for today.  You can see the same wave.

So why don’t they match perfectly?  The Heady Pattern sets up each and every fall, the 3rd week of September.  Now the cycle starts during the summer actually during the old pattern.  It can start as early as late May and as late as early September.  Last years 47 day cycle started in early August.  This years cycle started in early June.  This means we have already gone through a full cycle.  This is why it doesn’t match perfectly.  We are in the new cycle and just waiting for the new pattern to fully set.  However, I can already long range forecast for the next  year b/c I know the cycle length.  Now I can’t give the cycle length away yet until my long range forecasting competitors find the cycle.  I have a long range forecasting business which I have launched and will give you more details about over the next several months.  Because of this, I have to be very careful not to give away in a sense my secret but also give you the information that you want to know.  They usually find it in the month of December, but we will see if they find it faster.  My goal was not to forecast long range for 7-8 months a year, but all 12.  So I developed a model a few years ago and have perfected it to help me find the cycle length very early.  As of now, I know the new cycle for the next year.  This is ground breaking.  I have found the cycle early over the past 5 years.  Sure I have been off by a few days, but I am so excited that I have gotten the right algorithm.  But to find it this early is absolutely ground breaking and I am super excited about this as you can tell.  So what does all of this mean?  This means I can already see a good picture of what the fall, winter and spring have to hold for us.  Now once the new pattern sets, I will get a full picture, but because I already have the cycle length, it gives me a jump start on what will happen.  

Fall:  Big temperatures swings and we will start to catch up on rainfall.  We will also have 3-5 severe weather events during the fall.  This is a good start as this last pattern has been a pretty dry one.  On the next blog we will talk about the winter months.  On Thursday, we will chat about next spring.  Of course Friday, we will go into next summer.  So lets take a look at today.  Scattered showers during the morning hours.  They will be very scattered, so not a big deal.

As we work into the afternoon hours.  Thunderstorms will increase during the day.

Over the next 24 hours, most of us should pick up about 3/4 of an inch of rain.  However, some areas over an inch.

Late this week into the weekend, yet another wave drops in.  Remember, the cycle has changed.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms again through the weekend.  Long range forecast below.

Doug

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mainly a warm week with a hot finish.  When I say hot, I mean 90s for highs.  Thunderstorm chances Sunday and Monday, then again on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Sunday, Monday and Friday.  A 2 on Saturday.

August 26th-September 1st:    Mainly a warm week with highs into the 80s.  Hit and miss storms storms Sunday through Tuesday.  Back in the forecast by the weekend.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on the thundestorm days.

September 2nd-8th:  Mainly a warm week with mild temperatures briefly mid week.  Thunderstorm chances Sunday through Wednesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s thunderstorm days.

September 9th- 16th:  A hot start to the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Then again on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s each day.

September 17th-22nd:  Mainly a warm week with mild temperatures working in by the weekend.  Thunderstorm chances from Thursday through Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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