Late Sunday PM August 19th – Lingering T-Storm Chances for Monday

Good late Sunday evening, everyone. We had to deal with quite a bit of rain and t-storms today. After we had our morning batch of rain and t-storms rotate through, we had to deal with strong to severe t-storms this afternoon and early evening. As the survey crews from the Springfield office of the National Weather Service head out on Monday, we’ll have a much better idea of which storms caused damage due to straight line winds or tornadoes. At least we’re looking much calmer on the radar below…

We’ll still deal with this system for your Monday, but it’ll be the backside of the system. Thankfully, that means no severe weather to worry about with the scattered t-storms possible for Monday. I have the latest forecast, including what happened throughout Sunday, right below…

Don’t forget that Doug has your long-range forecast out into late September right below the 7-day forecast. If you’re curious as to what the latest is on the pattern, that’s just right below.

Have a good night and a great Monday!

Nick

Heady Pattern Update:  I found this pattern almost 20 years ago in college.  I used to bug my professors constantly about this pattern and they constantly told me that it wasn’t real.  I continued to work on it for the next few years.  By 2002, I knew the basis of the Heady Pattern.  I have figured out so much more over the past 16 years.  The biggest thing I feel like I have gained is the ability to long range forecast 12 months every year.  This has been my biggest goal the past few years.  I have hit some and missed some, but the past two I have hit and have it figured out.  So as I have stated in previous blogs, the fall will pick up as we are already seeing.  The winter wont be near as cold, but we will have more rain and snow.  If you are a winter lover that is great news.  Lets look into the spring and summer over the next few blogs.  Remember, my long range forecast is below.  If you have any questions about the Heady Pattern please FB me under Meteorologist Doug Heady or at dheady@koamtv.com.  Cheers!

-Doug

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  The rest of the week mainly dry until thunderstorm chances but slight return for the weekend.  Temps will be great through most of the week with low to mid 80s.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Sunday, Monday and Friday.  A 2 on Sunday

August 26th-September 1st:    Warm 80s to start the week with 90s returning for the middle of the week.  It will be low 90s but still 90s.  80s return late in the week.  We will have several weak waves rolling through but it will give us pop-up storms just about each and every day.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on the thundestorm days.

September 2nd-8th:  Mainly a warm week with mild temperatures briefly mid week.  Thunderstorm chances Sunday through Wednesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s thunderstorm days.

September 9th- 16th:  A hot start to the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Then again on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s each day.

September 17th-22nd:  Mainly a warm week with mild temperatures working in by the weekend.  Thunderstorm chances from Thursday through Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Doug

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dheady@koamtv.com

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