Wednesday AM Blog: Brief break but rain chances right back in. Plus, of course your long range Heady Pattern Forecast

Good Wednesday morning!  I apologize, I have been down and out the past couple of days.  I was playing with my son and sword fighting with him with a fly swatter.  However, he got it and hit me hard in the eye.  I have a pretty good scratch and down and out for a couple of days.  The swelling is going down and vision is slowly coming back, so I am back working of course.  So what about today?

We will have mostly cloudy skies and a few random hit and miss showers.

Take a look at the radar below.

So lets look at this next system.  Thunderstorms increasing tonight into Thursday morning.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms through the day.

Most of the thunderstorms will be out by late afternoon.  However, more thunderstorms develop Thursday night and into Friday morning.  Also the heat starts to increase.

You can see the ridge of  high pressure picking up over the southern plains allowing the 90s to return.   I will get deeper into the Heady Pattern over the next couple of days.  However, the new cycle is set and has been set for almost 3 weeks now.  Again, I will talk more about the new cycle as the new pattern sets up, but I am very happy to know that I have it completely figured out in the month of August.  I am very proud that my model I can call a complete success.  Lets move to the tropics.  I made a tropical forecast back in February which I put on during the 9:00 Fox News.  So far it is at about 75-80% which hey I am happy with.  Of course we don’t want tropical systems anywhere near the US, but one prediction is for a tropical system in the window of August 29th through September 3rd in the Gulf.   It would be great if nothing develops, but the long range models are now starting to show a system in this area in this time period which would be a forecasting hit.  Lets watch and see if it fully develops over the next two weeks or if we get lucky and nothing develops.  Here is the latest long range model showing a tropical system trying to pop up.  So I will watch it over the next two weeks.

Alright boys and girls.  I hope you have a great Wednesday.  Of course your long range forecast is below, have a great day!

-Doug

 

Heady Pattern Update:  I found this pattern almost 20 years ago in college.  I used to bug my professors constantly about this pattern and they constantly told me that it wasn’t real.  I continued to work on it for the next few years.  By 2002, I knew the basis of the Heady Pattern.  I have figured out so much more over the past 16 years.  The biggest thing I feel like I have gained is the ability to long range forecast 12 months every year.  This has been my biggest goal the past few years.  I have hit some and missed some, but the past two I have hit and have it figured out.  So as I have stated in previous blogs, the fall will pick up as we are already seeing.  The winter wont be near as cold, but we will have more rain and snow.  If you are a winter lover that is great news.  Lets look into the spring and summer over the next few blogs.  Remember, my long range forecast is below.  If you have any questions about the Heady Pattern please FB me under Meteorologist Doug Heady or at dheady@koamtv.com.  Cheers!

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:   Mainly a hot week with highs into the 90s with very slight chances for thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on the thunderstorm days.

September 2nd-8th:  Mainly a warm week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and then again on Thursday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s thunderstorm days.

September 9th- 16th:  A hot start to the week with warm temperatures the second half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Then again on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s each day.

September 17th-22nd:  Mainly a warm week with mild temperatures working in by the weekend.  Thunderstorm chances from Thursday through Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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