Tuesday morning Blog: Warmer temps, NEW HEADY PATTERN, tropics and more

Good Tuesday morning!  I hope your week has started off great!  Mine has been pretty good.  I feel better at least today.  I was down and out on Sunday.  Most of you know I have daily migraines.  So that means everyday I have some pain or some symptoms.  However, I have about 6-8 severe a month but only about 4-5 times a year I have a death bed migraine.  This is when I literally can’t take it anymore.  I am still dehydrated from vomiting so much on Sunday.  But at least I am doing better.  Besides that, I had a great weekend with Christian’s football game on Saturday.

At least the weather was great on Monday and that will be the case for us today as well.  Take a look at our day planner.

As you can see on the radar, not much going on.

However, we will have a slow warming trend this week and eventually some tropical moisture getting in here by Friday and into the weekend.  This isn’t a huge deal, but will give us some afternoon scattered thunderstorms.

Ok, Ms. Florence.  She is a machine.  So before we dive in, lets discuss what is going on.  Remember, the new Heady Pattern will be completely set here in 2 weeks.  So as of right now it is about 80% the new pattern and about 20% the old pattern.  However, the new cycle has been in place 100% for the past month.  It started back in the beginning of June.  So any tropical system that occurs now will also have a return in some fashion next summer and early fall.  Again, I have to be very careful on what information or examples I put out with the new cycle, but here in a month or two we will hit it hard.  Remember, you can also email me or facebook me for questions on the long range Heady Pattern.  So Florence is doing what she is suppose to do with the new cycle.  She drives toward the Carolina’s over the next 2.5 days.  Take a look at Thursday below.

The black arrow shows her trying to make landfall and slowly skirting north.  However, she is caught up.  She is blocked up in the pattern and really can’t move for several days.  This is similar to what happened to hurricane Sandy a few years back.  Now the strongest winds look to stay off the coast on the right side of the hurricane, but with Florence just slowly hanging out on the coast, flooding could be extreme.  That is going to be the biggest concern with her.  Lets go to Saturday.

You can see Florence is just hanging out along the coast.  It is very possible she moves back out to sea and strengthens once again and makes a second landfall.

This is next Monday, she is still hanging out in the same spot.  This would cause extreme flooding.

I think a lot of areas will see 20-40″ of rain which would not be good.  So what does this mean through the new Heady Pattern and for each cycle?  We will constantly get an upper low hung up or even major winter storms developing in this spot through the winter.  I will be referencing this storm as each cycle passes.  Also I will probably letter or number each storm in the cycles.  I have been doing this the past couple months and I will do this for you so you can see where we are at in the 2018-2019 Heady Pattern.  For us, you can see a warming trend through the week.

I updated the long range forecast through October below.



Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through October


Next Week:  Staying warm with mainly 80s through the week.  Tropical moisture with a cold front trying to work in with give us thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Rain chances return for the weekend.    This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Sunday, Monday with a 2 on Tuesday and Saturday.

September 23rd-29th:  A warm start to the week with a mild second half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Another system works in by the weekend with thunderstorm chances.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Sunday, Tuesday and Saturday with a 3 on Wednesday.

September 30th-October 6th:  A mild start to the week but with a storm system early in the week, cooler temperatures for the middle of the week.  Back to mild temperatures to end the week.  Rain chances on Monday and Tuesday, then again for the weekend.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on thunderstorm days.

October 7th-13th:  A cool start to the week with showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures back in on Wednesday and Thursday with cooler temperatures again for the weekend.  Also rain chances on Thursday and Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Friday, 2 on Monday, 3 on Sunday and a 4 on Thursday.

October 14th-20th:  Mainly a mild week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday and then again on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Tuesday, 2’s on Monday, Friday and Saturday.

October 21st-27th:  A cool start to the week but mild temps return and stick around through the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Wednesday and Saturday, 3 on Thursday.





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