Thursday AM Blog: Warming up, Florence, long range forecast.

Good Thursday morning!  I hope your week is going great!  Mine has been productive and pretty good.  I am just looking over the new data with Florence and enjoying our boring weather around here.  It will be another nice day for us today.

We will have partly sunny skies in the afternoon, like we have seen all week.  There could be a sprinkle or two, but it looks pretty good.  Take a look at the radar below.



Not much out there.  We will continue to warm into the mid to upper 80s over the next few days, with just a few random isolated storms.  But in general it looks great!

So lets check out Florence.  Here is a look at the evening hours.

She has greatly weakened to a cat. 2 which is a low to mid grade hurricane.  However, I have said all week it isn’t the winds it is the flooding that will be and issue because she slows up.  Heavy rains especially along the coast tonight and into Friday.  Here is midday tomorrow.

Most likely at this point Florence will be a strong tropical storm but still dumping heavy rains.  Lets go into Saturday.

She hasn’t moved much and still dumping heavy rains.  So rain totals over the next several days should be in the 20-30″ range.

I updated the long range forecast through October below.



Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through October


Next Week:  Staying warm with mainly 80s through the week.  Tropical moisture with a cold front trying to work in with give us thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Some storms could be strong on Thursday.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Sunday, Monday with a 2 on Tuesday and Wednesday, lets go 3 on Thursday.

September 23rd-29th:  A warm start to the week with a mild second half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Another system works in by the weekend with thunderstorm chances.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Sunday, Tuesday and Saturday with a 3 on Wednesday.

September 30th-October 6th:  A warm start to the week with cooler temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  We will warm back up some by the weekend.  Thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on thunderstorm days.

October 7th-13th:  A cool start to the week with showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures back in on Wednesday and Thursday with cooler temperatures again for the weekend.  Also rain chances on Thursday and Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Friday, 2 on Monday, 3 on Sunday and a 4 on Thursday.

October 14th-20th:  Mainly a mild week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday and then again on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Tuesday, 2’s on Monday, Friday and Saturday.

October 21st-27th:  A cool start to the week but mild temps return and stick around through the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Wednesday and Saturday, 3 on Thursday.




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