Wednesday AM Blog: Florence, thunderstorms, long range Heady Pattern

 

Good Wednesday morning!  I hope your week is going great!  Mine has been pretty good.  I am just sitting here pounding out some work and hoping to get a ton done around the house today.  Take a look at our day planner for today.

You can see not much on the radar, but we will have at least isolated thunderstorms increasing during the afternoon with some tropical moisture over the next few days.

Take a look at the upper level map for today.

You can see the Jet Stream is well north, so no big systems, but we do have tropical moisture south that will try to give us a pop-up storms.  Also, look a Florence.  See the big High just north of her, that is what is directing her into North Carolina.  Because the high isn’t breaking down, she will get hung up and move super slow.

We will have a few isolated storms form Thursday through Sunday due to tropical moisture pushing north, but not a huge deal.  Lets look at Florence.

Here is Thursday evening.  Right along the coast and putting the breaks on.  Let go to Friday.

She doesn’t move much because of the High Pressure, this is going to cause intense flooding.  Lets move through the weekend.

By Sunday, she sinks a little farther south but still very heavy rains.  This is right on track with what should happen with the new Heady Pattern.  This fits the new cycle perfectly.  Lets move on a couple of days.

As our next cold front works in, finally she kicks out.  A lot to watch over the next few days.  Long range forecast through October is below.

-Doug

 

 

I updated the long range forecast through October below.

Cheers!

-Doug

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through October

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Staying warm with mainly 80s through the week.  Tropical moisture with a cold front trying to work in with give us thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Rain chances return for the weekend.    This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Sunday, Monday with a 2 on Tuesday and Saturday.

September 23rd-29th:  A warm start to the week with a mild second half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Another system works in by the weekend with thunderstorm chances.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Sunday, Tuesday and Saturday with a 3 on Wednesday.

September 30th-October 6th:  A mild start to the week but with a storm system early in the week, cooler temperatures for the middle of the week.  Back to mild temperatures to end the week.  Rain chances on Monday and Tuesday, then again for the weekend.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on thunderstorm days.

October 7th-13th:  A cool start to the week with showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures back in on Wednesday and Thursday with cooler temperatures again for the weekend.  Also rain chances on Thursday and Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Friday, 2 on Monday, 3 on Sunday and a 4 on Thursday.

October 14th-20th:  Mainly a mild week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday and then again on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Tuesday, 2’s on Monday, Friday and Saturday.

October 21st-27th:  A cool start to the week but mild temps return and stick around through the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Wednesday and Saturday, 3 on Thursday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

Remember that you can sign up for WeatherCall by clicking the WeatherCall link at the top of the page. WeatherCall, in our opinion, is the best tool on the market to keep you safe during severe weather.

Also, we have our free WEATHER APP that lets you access our forecast, blog, radar and weather alerts. We think it’s a must if you own an Apple or Android phone.

Share!

    This entry was posted in Blog. Bookmark the permalink.