Friday AM Blog: Florence update, weekend forecast, plus your long range forecast

 

Good Friday morning.  I hope you have had a great week and of course I am ready for the weekend.  My son (Christian or C) has a big football game on Saturday.  I am hoping to get a lot done around the house, work on my side bizz ( long range Heady Pattern business) and of course my Chiefs on Sunday.  For some odd reason I think they are going to go into and win 31-27 in a close game.  Lets see what happens.

Ok today, another great day with highs up there in the upper 80s.

High School Friday Night Lights.  We love our high school ball around here.  At least this week it will be dry, but it will be warm.

1st Quarter:  83 party cloudy,

End of Games:  78 and Partly cloudy. 

Take a look at the radar below, not much going on.

Lets check out Florence first.  This fits perfectly with the NEW HEADY PATTERN CYCLE.  Remember, the new pattern is almost set but we have already gone through one and a half cycles of the new cycle for the next year.  This is ground breaking as this hasn’t been figured out by anyone else which highly excites me.  However, Florence fits perfect and actually will return next summer as will with a 2019 Pattern twist, but that is stuff we can go over well down the line.  Remember, the new pattern is ONE week from being completely set, so everything we have seen over the past 6 weeks (which has been huge changes around here) is all the new pattern of what we will see.  This will be a much more exciting pattern than what we have had over the past several years.  So lets look at Florence this afternoon.

You can see she is still right along the coast.  Yes she has greatly weakened and makes landfall as a cat. 1 instead of a 4 or 5.  But that is how it fits with the Heady Pattern, she was suppose to weaken.  However, even though the storm surge isn’t huge, or even the winds, it is the slow movement and the flooding rains that will cause the issues.  Lets go out another day.

She weakens but still dropping the heavy rains.  Look at the totals.

That is going to cause serious issues.  Ok, what about us?  We have a little tropical moisture from the gulf that could give us a random shower over the weekend, but mainly dry.  However, better chances for thunderstorms as a front gets close to us and hangs out much of next week.  Finally it should push through late next week. Here is a look at next Friday.

After this, we will see huge changes.  Check out my long range forecast below.

-Doug

 

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through October

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Staying warm with mainly 80s through the week.  Tropical moisture with a cold front trying to work in with give us thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Some storms could be strong on Thursday and Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. Lets go with 1’s through the week with 2 on Thursday and a 3 on Friday and Saturday.

September 23rd-29th:  A mild start but warm temperatures quickly return through the first half of the week.  As a storm system rolls through mid week, mild temps are replaced the rest of the week.  Thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.    This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Sunday, 2 on Monday, 3 on Tuesday and a 4 on Wednesday.

September 30th-October 6th:  A warm start to the week with cooler temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  We will warm back up some by the weekend.  Thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on thunderstorm days.

October 7th-13th:  A cool start to the week with showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures back in on Wednesday and Thursday with cooler temperatures again for the weekend.  Also rain chances on Thursday and Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Friday, 2 on Monday, 3 on Sunday and a 4 on Thursday.

October 14th-20th:  Mainly a mild week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday and then again on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Tuesday, 2’s on Monday, Friday and Saturday.

October 21st-27th:  A cool start to the week but mild temps return and stick around through the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Wednesday and Saturday, 3 on Thursday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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