Late Saturday Evening September 15th – Warm/Hot Week Ahead with Rain Chances Returning

Good late Saturday evening, everyone. After we had a great week to enjoy nice temperatures and a chance to dry out after last week’s rain, we had to venture back into the late summer warmth/heat around here. We pushed near 90° yesterday and we did it again today under partly to mostly sunny skies. Thankfully, we don’t have anything to worry about tonight as the radar below stays quiet…

For most of the area, our Sunday will start off mild again followed by a warm afternoon. With additional Gulf moisture working in from the south, we’ll have partly sunny skies back in for the afternoon along with a chance for a random t-storm or two. Beyond Sunday, the week will be a warm one with rain and t-storm chances continuing to line up. The latest forecast is right below…

Don’t forget that Doug has his latest thoughts on the pattern and his long-range forecast out into late October below the 7-Day forecast. Have a good night and a great Sunday!

Nick

 

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through October:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

September 23rd-29th:  A mild start but warm temperatures quickly return through the first half of the week.  As a storm system rolls through mid week, mild temps are replaced the rest of the week.  Thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.    This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Sunday, 2 on Monday, 3 on Tuesday and a 4 on Wednesday.

September 30th-October 6th:  A warm start to the week with cooler temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  We will warm back up some by the weekend.  Thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on thunderstorm days.

October 7th-13th:  A cool start to the week with showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures back in on Wednesday and Thursday with cooler temperatures again for the weekend.  Also rain chances on Thursday and Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Friday, 2 on Monday, 3 on Sunday and a 4 on Thursday.

October 14th-20th:  Mainly a mild week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday and then again on Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Tuesday, 2’s on Monday, Friday and Saturday.

October 21st-27th:  A cool start to the week but mild temps return and stick around through the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Wednesday and Saturday, 3 on Thursday.

Doug

#headypattern

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dheady@koamtv.com

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