Friday AM Blog: Thunderstorms, cooler temps, long range forecast!

Good Friday morning!  I hope you week has been great!  Mine has been pretty good.  The weeks just fly by and we are almost back to the weekend.  Thankfully we have a storm system working in.  As most of you know, I get bored when we have weather that most of you enjoy, lol.  I need weather action and at least we will have some today.  First off, a quick tangent I want to go on.  As many of you know.  I have my long range forecasting pattern (Heady Pattern (HP)) that I have been working on for 20 years.  My mentor (Bryan Busby, Chief in KC) and the best meteorologist I have ever seen in my 39 almost 40 years present the weather to viewers, have been working on a side business.  Bryan, is the best communicator I have ever seen.  He gets people, he understands how viewers think.  He has taught me how to relate the most important information about the weather that you need to know.  I consider him a father, a mentor, a man that I can mold me life after.  We have in a sense got it launched but so much more to come over the next few months with our new pattern.  We are really going to expand this and I am super excited about the potential we  have as partners to bring this to clients.  I will keep you updated on all of this, but make sure to read my pattern back ground below to see how this all started.

So the new pattern!!!!!!!!!!  The new 2018-2019 Heady Pattern will be completely set by the weekend.  This means the next year we will be in the same pattern.  As you can tell we have had huge changes in temperatures and rainfall since the beginning of August.  This is because we were shifting into the new pattern.  The cycle length (distance from storm system to storms system) I can’t give away just yet due to competitors.  However, I will tell you it is nailed down and I will be able to open up about it here in about the next month.  At that point, I don’t mind giving the length away as we will be a month into the new pattern.  But let me tell you, I am very excited about the winter and spring that we will see around here.  Okay, lets get real, when I say excited that isn’t that best for you, but at least I enjoy it, ha ha.  Okay, so much more to come.

So what about today?

A much cooler day with scattered showers.  I will break this down for you.  Check out the radar below.

Lets go into the morning hours.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the morning hours.  A cold front will shift through with a north wind allowing the cooler air to work in.  I don’t expect heavy rain, but a few areas with 1/4-1/2″ definitely possible.  Lets work into the afternoon hours.

The cold front sags a little farther south by afternoon.  Most of the showers will be along and south of I-44.  So what about High School Football?  Well, I am mainly thinking cloudy skies with temperatures in the lower 70s for kickoff.  There could be a random shower, but I am not really concerned about rain for the games.  Lets work into the overnight hours.

Again, most of the showers along and south of I-44.  So lets talk rain totals.  North of I-44, 1/4-1/2″ of scattered showers, this is an average but some areas will just see a trace to 1/10th.  South of I-44, 1/2-3/4″ of rain with a little more widespread showers.  Weekend, what can we expect?

Most of the showers tomorrow stay south of the region.  We will break out and see partly sunny skies and temperatures great into the mid 70s.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.

-Doug

 

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through October:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  After a great weekend with fantastic fall 70s, we will briefly warm back into the 80s at the beginning of the week.  However, showers and thunderstorms with our next storm system on Monday and Tuesday.  This will cool us back down through the middle of the week.  Another wave on Friday with showers and cooler temperatures for the weekend.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2 on Tuesday, 1 on Wednesday.

September 30th-October 6th:  A cool start ot the week, but most of the week will be nice mild temperatures.  Chances for showers with an  upper level wave rolling in on Friday and Saturday.  This will cool us down a bit for the weekend.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 

October 7th-13th:  A cool start to the week with showers on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday with a slow moving upper level wave rolling through.  Mild temperatures returning for the middle of the week with thunderstorms working in on Thursday and Friday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Cooling down and drying out for the weekend. This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2 on Thursday.

October 14th-20th:  Mainly a mild week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and We  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Tuesday, 2’s on Monday, Friday and Saturday.

October 21st-27th:  A cool start to the week but mild temps return and stick around through the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s on Wednesday and Saturday, 3 on Thursday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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