Tuesday AM Blog: Strong to severe storms, turning colder, long range Heady Pattern Forecast

Good Tuesday morning!  I hope you are having a great day so far.  I have a super busy day today.  A few things around the house, work with possible severe storms.  Then off to KC to catch an early morning flight to Chicago for my migraines.  Check out all of the storms on the radar below.

I decided to do a video blog with so much going on the next few days.  Plus I talk about the long range Heady Pattern.

I will keep you updated.  Long range forecast is below.

-Doug

 

 

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means today’s weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through October:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A cool start to the week with the nice fall temperatures sticking around through the week.  We will moderate the temps through the week, but still looks great.  Chances for showers on Thursday and Friday.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 

October 21st-27th:  A mild start to the week with a storm system on Sunday and Monday.  This will cool us off through the middle of the week before mild temperatures return late in the week with additional thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Lets go a 2 on Sunday, 1 on Friday and a 3 on Saturday.

October 28th-November 3rd:  A cool start but mild temperatures work in for Monday and Tuesday with more showers and thunderstorms.  Then cooling back down for Halloween, but right now I think it will be dry.  Nice temperatures the rest of the week.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  A 2 on Monday.

November 4th-10th:  Mainly a cool week with showers on Sunday.  Staying cool through the week with mild temperatures by the weekend.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Not much of a severe weather chance.

November 11th-17th:  Mild with showers on Sunday.  Cold temperatures for Monday and Tuesday, then back to mild with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Back to cooler temperatures to wrap up the week.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Lets go a 2 on Wednesday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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