Friday AM Blog: Heady Pattern is getting interesting. More rain and cooler temperatures

Good Friday morning!  I hope you had a great week and of course ready for the weekend.  My week has been super busy, but actually pretty good.  I want to cover a few topics today as the weather (at least for me) is getting super exciting and interesting.  Lets go over the tropics, the Heady Pattern and this weekends rain.

Tropics:  We just had major Hurricane Micheal two days ago.  It made landfall in the Florida Panhandle but in a very similar spot as Nate last October, Alberto in May and Gordon back in early September.  Remember, in the old pattern the cycle length was about 47.5 days long.  Nate, Alberto and Gordon were all right on target and right on the 47.5 day cycle length.  I made a tropics forecast back in March that was able to pinpoint these while using the Heady Pattern.  However, Micheal is interesting.  It didn’t hit on the 47.5 day cycle as the old pattern and old cycle have been completely dead now for a few weeks.  However, there are other cycles that also take place, especially in the tropics.  It is very interesting that tropical systems will end up in similar spots (depending on when they develop) for upwards of 3 years.  Micheal is officially in the new pattern.  We will see a similar tropical system next late summer and fall in a similar spot.  I haven’t done the math of the exact dates with our new cycle, but I will soon.

Heady Pattern:  The new pattern has been set now for about 3 weeks.  The new cycle has been going on now for 3 and a half months.  When the cycle started back in June, it slowly become dominant as the old cycle slowly faded away.  The new cycle is extremely evident right now, and I am very excited that I nailed this new cycle down two months ago.  I still want to wait a few weeks to reveal the exact length due to having a side business with long range forecasting. I have to be careful not to give away that secret sauce.  However, the cycle length is longer than the 47.5 day cycle of last year.  Next week I will dig into the rest of the fall and what we should expect for the winter.  I will do a winter forecast here in about a month or so.  I am excited the pattern is more active than the past couple of patterns.  Much more to come.  Take a look at the upper level map for today.  Look at all of the waves.

Two big things I like here.  Let me state, I like this for an active pattern for the fall, winter and spring.  We have an active flow out of the NW with several waves working through.  At the same time, we have waves getting caught up in the SW US and a sub tropical jet.  This shows me we will get big bouts of cold air but also waves tracking in that will give us an active winter.

The next few days:  Wow, it is chilly out.  I keep thinking I need to get down to Table Rock and tow the boat back to winterize it.  It is my sons last weekend of football, so that will move to the top of the list.  We do have showers really increasing.

Here is the day planner.

Take a look at the radar below.

Watch the showers and a random rumble of the thunderstorms increase through the morning.

Lets move to early afternoon.

Most of the showers will be out of here by evening for high school football.  However, it will be cloudy, chilly, random showers or drizzle.  Temperatures in the 40s, so bundle up.

Next wave rolls in Saturday after 3pm.

Most of these showers will be out of here late Saturday night.  However, wave number three rolls in by Sunday afternoon.

Look at all of the cold air with the snow in central KS.  We will stay all rain but light showers again through Monday morning.  Check out the 7-day below and my updated long range forecast.

-Doug

 

 

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means today’s weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through October:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A cool start to the week with showers on Sunday and Monday.  Sun will return for the middle of the week with a slow warming trend back to the 70s by late week.  Showers again on Friday and Saturday.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 

October 21st-27th:  Mainly a mild week with showers on Tuesday and then again for the weekend.   This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1 on Tuesday, 2 on Saturday.

October 28th-November 3rd:  Mild with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Briefly cooling down on Monday, back to mild temps for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Showers with our next wave on Tuesday and Wednesday with cool temperatures working in for the rest of the week.  Cold with a few showers again for the weekend.  Halloween:  Mild with a few showers.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2 on Sunday, 1 on Tuesday.

November 4th-10th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures returning by the middle of the week.  Showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday, then cooler again for the late week and the weekend.  Election Tuesday:  Mild and looks dry.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Not much of a severe weather chance.

November 11th-17th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week.  Showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday with much cooler temperatures working in.  Some snow could be close or mixed in on Friday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  Lets go a 2 on Thursday.

November 18th-24th:  Mainly a cool week with showers on Monday and Tuesday.  The rest of the week looks dry including Thanksgiving and Black Friday.  It will be on the cold side. 

November 25th-December 1st:  A mild start to the week with showers on Monday.  Rain back in on Wednesday and cooling down the rest of the week.  Rain or snow chances on Friday and Saturday.

December 2nd-8th:  Back to mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  It could change or mix with snow on Wednesday.  Cold the rest of the wee with rain or snow chances for the weekend.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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