Good Tuesday morning! I hope your week started off great! Mine has been good, I need to get a lot of errands done though before work. I really hate errands, oh well. I hope you had a great weekend as well. My son had a crushing loss in his super bowl. Then I made it home to watch the Chiefs game, and yet again, a crushing loss. I am doing well though and have moved on, lol. Ok, what about today? Did we lose fall? First off lets look at today.
After a very cold start, not a bad finish. However, we should be topping out in the lower 70s still. Most of the rain stays well south.
We will have a slow warming trend through the week ahead of our next system Thursday night and Friday. Oh, don’t worry. We will have plenty of nice fall days over the next month. This is just part of the Heady Pattern. Remember this, because when this comes back around in a couple of months, it is going to get cold!
Our next wave rolls in late Thursday into Friday. It is weak but will fire a few showers.
You can see this upper level wave, it is fairly weak.
So far I am liking the new Heady Pattern. We are about 3 weeks into it. The cycle has been cycling for 3 months. It looks much better for us if you like active weather. However, we are in a boring stretch for the next 10-12 days. After that, I promise it will pick right back up. Make sure you look at my long range forecast below.
So how did all of this start? Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station. Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks. Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked. As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years. Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science. When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern. I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting. The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th. The pattern is completely set by about September 20th. The pattern is how storm systems will react. In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place. The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long. If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long. That means today’s weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now. However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern. I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it. We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it. A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look. It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally. Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year.
Long range forecast through December:
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: Mild temperatures most of the week. Rain chances return on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Also we will turn colder over the weekend. This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1 on Tuesday, 2 on Friday.
October 28th-November 3rd: A cool start to the week with showers in on Tuesday and Wednesday. Cooling back down the second half of the week with showers b y Saturday. Halloween: Mild with a few showers. This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 2 on Sunday, 1 on Tuesday.
November 4th-10th: A cold start to the week with mild temperatures returning by the middle of the week. Showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday, then cooler again for the late week and the weekend. Election Tuesday: Mild and looks dry. This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. Not much of a severe weather chance.
November 11th-17th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week. Showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday with much cooler temperatures working in. Some snow could be close or mixed in on Friday. This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. Lets go a 2 on Thursday.
November 18th-24th: Mainly a cool week with showers on Monday and Tuesday. The rest of the week looks dry including Thanksgiving and Black Friday. It will be on the cold side.
November 25th-December 1st: A mild start to the week with showers on Monday. Rain back in on Wednesday and cooling down the rest of the week. Rain or snow chances on Friday and Saturday.
December 2nd-8th: Back to mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. It could change or mix with snow on Wednesday. Cold the rest of the wee with rain or snow chances for the weekend.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
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