Late Saturday November 3rd – Interesting Week Ahead of Us

Good late Saturday evening, everyone. We had quite a bit of cloud cover today, but the south wind really allowed us to warm up after a cold start. We went from the upper 30s and lower 40s and turned the thermostat up into the upper 60s today. Even though we didn’t have any action from the cloud cover for most of the day, our passing front will have some rain and t-storms passing through overnight on the radar below…

The rain chances with this system will just be an overnight affair. After sunrise, we’ll be done with rain chances for Sunday while we turn quite a bit cooler. Beyond Sunday, we’re looking at a bit of an interesting week ahead of us. Not only do we have more rain chances lining up, there looks to be a taste of winter on the way as well. Your look at the week ahead is right below…

Don’t forget that Doug has your long-range forecast out into early December right below the 7 day forecast.

Have a good night and a great Sunday!


Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means today’s weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through December:


Next Week:   Mainly a mild week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Thursday will cool down, but mild temperatures return for Friday and Saturday with more rain with our next system.

November 18th-24th:  A mild start with a storm system on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This is big travel days before Thanksgiving.  I think on Wednesday we will have snow close or could even mix with some snow.  Thanksgiving and Friday will be cool, but should be dry. Rain back in for the weekend. 

November 25th-December 1st:  Rain or snow chances on Sunday, them mainly a cool and dry week.  Rain chances back in on Saturday.

December 2nd-8th:  Rain chances back in on Monday.  Staying mild most of the week with rain back in by Thursday.  Now, if we can get some cold air we will be looking at snow or ice on Friday and Saturday.  We need to watch this system.




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