Saturday AM Blog: Getting interesting, long rang Heady Pattern Forecast.

Good Saturday morning!  I hope you had a great week and of course ready for the weekend.  I did another video-cast for you, not near as long to break it down.  It gets interesting.

Take a look at the radar below for you.

In the next day or two I will  update the long range forecast out till hmm lets go Jan or Feb. Why not right?

-Doug

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means today’s weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through December:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next Week:  Early Sunday morning showers, then partly sunny.  However, yet another wave moves in on Monday and Tuesday with more rain.  We stay cool through the rest of the week.  We have another wave with showers on Thursday, if we can get enough colder air we could mix with a little snow on Thursday and Friday.  Lets watch it.

November 11th-17th:   Mainly a mild week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Thursday will cool down, but mild temperatures return for Friday and Saturday with more rain with our next system.

November 18th-24th:  A mild start with a storm system on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This is big travel days before Thanksgiving.  I think on Wednesday we will have snow close or could even mix with some snow.  Thanksgiving and Friday will be cool, but should be dry. Rain back in for the weekend. 

November 25th-December 1st:  Rain or snow chances on Sunday, them mainly a cool and dry week.  Rain chances back in on Saturday.

December 2nd-8th:  Rain chances back in on Monday.  Staying mild most of the week with rain back in by Thursday.  Now, if we can get some cold air we will be looking at snow or ice on Friday and Saturday.  We need to watch this system.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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