Tuesday AM Blog: Cooling down, maybe snow!!!!!!! Long range forecast

Good Tuesday morning!  I hope your week has started off great!  Mine has been pretty good so far.  I actually have a lot I need to get done around the house.  I also need to get the boat winterized, especially with a couple night with lows in the 20s coming up.  So, what about today?  We will have more clouds but still not a bad day.

There is a slight chance there could be a few showers late today in our northern counties, but no reason you can’t get out and vote on this Election Tuesday.  Take a look at the radar below.

Here is a look at the few showers popping up in our northern counties late today.

By tonight, most will shift south of the region.

Our next system rolls in on Thursday.  First off, take a look at around noon Thursday.

Now this is a weak wave at least in this part of the country.  It is much stronger to our north, but still strong enough to fire off some rain and snow.  This is right on target with the Heady Pattern.  Remember, this is a longer cycle.  I still want to hold my IP but this is early September.  Remember, if you have questions on the pattern or cycle, I will openly discuss it as there are so many very in-depth parts to it that I feel it is very safe to talk about the pattern and cycle length.  I have always tried to not give away the cycle length this fall, but at this point it is fine, you still have to be able to accurately break it down.  So after that ramble, this is part of the early September version which was actually the old pattern but the new cycle was extremely established at that time.  So what happens?  Well we will drawl some colder air through the day.  Watch the snow line start dropping south by the afternoon.

As of now, it looks like a cold rain on Thursday afternoon.  However, snow will start to mix in and most likely change to snow especially in our northern counties.  This will quickly push out Thursday night, but still this is our first decent shot at snow.  I think areas north of I-44 have a decent shot at seeing flakes.  Our northern counties (Nevada, Ft. Scott, Iola) could see some minor accumulations of 2″or less.  However, remember the ground is very warm.  But isn’t this exciting???

We only had 12″ of snow last season and we are already talking about possible accumulations.  I will keep you updated.  Long range forecast is below.

-Doug

 

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means today’s weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through December:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next Week:   A chilly start to the week with slight rain chances on Monday.  Stay cool through mid-week with mild temperatures returning the second half of the week.  A slight chance for rain on Thursday.

November 18th-24th:  A mild start to the week with slight chances for rain on Monday, with better chances on Tuesday.  Rain or snow on Wednesday which is a big travel day, so much be watched. A cool but dry Thanksgiving and Black Friday.  Rain chances back in for the weekend. 

November 25th-December 1st:  Rain or snow chances on Sunday with a cool start to the week.  Mild temperatures with rain chances back in on Wednesday.  Rain or snow on Thursday with cold temperatures into the weekend.

December 2nd-8th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures by mid week.  Rain chances on Wednesday and Friday.  Temperatures not bad through the week.

December 9th-15th:  Mainly a cool week but an active week.  Rain and snow chances Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Cold for the weekend.

December 16th-22nd:  A cool start to the week with snow chances o Sunday.  Rain or snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday with our next storm system working in.  Then staying cold the rest of the week.

December 23rd-29th:  A cold with rain or snow chances on Sunday.  If we get some snow we could have a white Christmas, so lets see how it pans out.  Rain back in for the weekend.

December 30th-January 5th:  A cold week with snow chances on Sunday, but New Year’s looks dry.  Snow chances back in on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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