Wednesday AM Blog: Rain and even snow chances!

 

Good Wednesday morning!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been pretty good.  Busy but good.  I actually have to shoot up to KC this morning for my pain management doc (for migraines) then shoot back and head to work.  So it will be a long day.  But at least today will be a decent day.  It will be a little cooler with highs into the mid 50s but still not to bad.  However, our next system is looming.  Take a look at the radar below.

 

Clouds will continue to thicken up with even some drizzle late tonight with lows around 40.  The first half of Thursday will be mainly dry, but cloudy and drizzle.  Showers will start to spread in during the early afternoon.

With rain working through, by mid afternoon temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 30s.

We will start to see snow mixing in, especially in our northern counties.  As we work through the evening, snow will continue to mix in farther south.

By late evening, most of us will at least have a rain snow mix.  Most of this will be out by midnight.  So lets talk snow amounts.  Now, don’t freak out about this map.

This looks worse than it is.  So lets break it down.  Northern counties, lets say Yates Center, Iola, Chanute, Ft. Scott, Nevada and Stockton.  These areas will see a period of wet snow.  I am not expecting any problems on the roads but some accumulations of 1-2″ are possible with isolated 3″ amounts.

Lets move south:  Indy, Parsons, Chetopa, Columbus, Pitt, Joplin metro, Monett, Lockwood.  All of these areas will see mainly rain but briefly over to snow.  If any accumulations it would be under 1″

NE OK, Neosho, Anderson, Cassville, NW AR:  Rain, but could mix with some snow.  Dusting would be on the high end.

Long range forecast is below.

-Doug

Pattern Background:

So how did all of this start?  Throughout elementary, middle and high school, Bryan Busby (Chief KMBC, Kansas City, MO) and I hung out on numerous occasions down at the station.  Bryan is my mentor, he is the one who pushed me in this field and actually got my very first job at Cable 6 News in Lawrence, Ks.  Bryan showed me all of his forecasting theories on how the atmosphere worked.  As an elementary and middle school kid, this didn’t make the greatest sense but it stuck with me over the years.   Some of his forecasting techniques, Bryan shared with me what he called “The Pendulum Theory.” Simply put, Bryan noticed as the atmospheric conditions were way out of line with normal, temperatures would “swing” back just as severely in the opposite direction. In the process, strong storms would proceed the change. That stuck with me as I entered college to furthered my study in the science.  When I was in college, I noticed a recurring pattern.  I didn’t know what I had found at that point in time, but it ended up being a ground breaking technology that I use today for long range forecasting.  The pattern sets up each and every year from late August through September 20th.  The pattern is completely set by about September 20th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this past years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means today’s weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  However, the new cycle is now in place, we have a whole new year of a new weather pattern.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through December:

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next Week:   A chilly start to the week with slight rain chances on Monday.  Stay cool through mid-week with mild temperatures returning the second half of the week.  A slight chance for rain on Thursday.

November 18th-24th:  A mild start to the week with slight chances for rain on Monday, with better chances on Tuesday.  Rain or snow on Wednesday which is a big travel day, so much be watched. A cool but dry Thanksgiving and Black Friday.  Rain chances back in for the weekend. 

November 25th-December 1st:  Rain or snow chances on Sunday with a cool start to the week.  Mild temperatures with rain chances back in on Wednesday.  Rain or snow on Thursday with cold temperatures into the weekend.

December 2nd-8th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures by mid week.  Rain chances on Wednesday and Friday.  Temperatures not bad through the week.

December 9th-15th:  Mainly a cool week but an active week.  Rain and snow chances Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Cold for the weekend.

December 16th-22nd:  A cool start to the week with snow chances o Sunday.  Rain or snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday with our next storm system working in.  Then staying cold the rest of the week.

December 23rd-29th:  A cold with rain or snow chances on Sunday.  If we get some snow we could have a white Christmas, so lets see how it pans out.  Rain back in for the weekend.

December 30th-January 5th:  A cold week with snow chances on Sunday, but New Year’s looks dry.  Snow chances back in on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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