Wednesday AM May 2nd – Watching T-Storm Chances for the Next Few Days

Good Wednesday morning, everyone. We got off to a mostly cloudy but quiet start with a south breeze keeping us mild. Even with cloud cover around, we’re still looking quiet so far on the radar below…

While we’ve been quiet to start the day out, our storm system that spawned severe weather out in central & eastern Kansas hasn’t really moved that much. It will recharge and fire up additional strong to severe t-storms out to our west this afternoon…

For us, our afternoon will stay quiet. We’ll have peaks of the sun and the south breeze warm us into the lower 80s this afternoon…

As for the t-storm chances this afternoon, they’ll start firing up out in central KS during the 1 to 4 PM time-frame…

As the storms evolve, they will push east and northeast. The brunt of the strongest t-storms should stay north of the area, but we’ll be watching for some t-storms trying to sneak into our northern counties after 7 PM…

The better severe threat with the t-storms this afternoon and tonight will stay north of the area. With that said, any t-storms that sneak in here tonight and into early Thursday morning could be strong to severe with hail and wind being the main threats. That’s why we have most of the area under a low severe threat (our slight per the Storm Prediction Center) for tonight…

We could have some morning t-storms (below severe limits) by the time we head to work and school Thursday morning, but we should start mild with temperatures in the upper 60s. We’ll have a break in the action for late Thursday morning and into Thursday afternoon before the brunt of this storm system starts to pass through…

Before any afternoon t-storm chances fire up in our area Thursday, we’ll have afternoon highs warm again as we should climb back into the lower 80s…

In terms of our severe threat for Thursday, we’ll have a low to elevated threat for the afternoon and going into the evening…

The timing for the second round of t-storms looks to be between 2 PM and midnight before we roll into Friday. The key with Thursday afternoon’s t-storms, they won’t be in a solid line that’ll roll in from the west. They should be scattered t-storms that’ll pop up in random spots in our western counties from late afternoon into the evening…

These scattered supercell t-storms will continue to fire up and work west to east across the area going into the evening. Below shows the storms as they move on out by about the midnight hour going into Friday. For now, we see the main threats with Thursday afternoon/evening’s t-storms as hail and wind. We’ll keep the tornado threat low for now, but we’ll keep an eye on things…

Once we get the last of the storms out of here late Thursday night, we’re looking great for the weekend. We’ll keep warm with temperatures in the middle to upper 70s with partly to mostly sunny skies. A few t-storms could try to pop up late Sunday afternoon and into Sunday evening, but most spots should be dry overall for the weekend. Don’t forget that Doug has your long-range forecast and latest thoughts on the pattern over at headypattern.com

Have a great Wednesday!

Nick

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