Monday morning: Rounds of storms, extreme heat and your Heady Pattern long range forecast

Good early Monday morning.  Back to the grind, yet another week.  I can’t believe we are almost to the 4th of July, isn’t that crazy.  I am leaving in the next 24 hours for a big road trip with my family and my sisters family.  We are traveling up into South Dakota and doing the Badlands and a few other activities.  Then heading into Montana for a few days.  Dropping south into Yellowstone.  This is about an 11 day road trip, hmm, I am excited but man that is a lot of time in the car lol.  I  have my son loaded with his DVD player and Ipad.  When I think about it, he should just stare out the window like I had to do as a kid.  I will keep you updated on the trip.

Scattered thunderstorms.  Take a look at the radar below.


We have scattered thunderstorms this morning.  However, we will break out and see partly sunny skies and pushing 90 during the afternoon.  There is a slight chance for an isolated storm this afternoon, but most of us will stay dry.  However, tonight, we will have scattered thunderstorms develop, especially along the I-44 corridor.

Some of these could be strong and low grade severe, I will keep my eyes on them.  Even  hotter on Tuesday with highs into the mid 90s and the heat index around 103.  More late afternoon and overnight storms develop into Wednesday morning.

After Wednesday, we are mainly dry into the weekend with very hot temps.  We are right on track with the Heady Pattern.  However, we are already starting to see chances.  Remember the new pattern sets up in late September and early October.  However, the new cycle is already getting going.  I have recently figured out a HUGE piece of the puzzle. I figure out new stuff each year.  I am going to dig into this in a couple weeks after vaca.


Long range forecast below.  I will extend this out a couple months when I get back.

Here is your 7-day forecast:

Lets check out the Heady Pattern and your long range forecast.

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July


Next Week:   Mainly a hot week with thunderstorm chances returning from Tuesday through Saturday.  Just pop-up random storms.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1’s on each day.

July 8th-14th:  Hot through Wednesday, but warm temperatures return for Thursday through Saturday.  A few thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Wednesday and Thursday.

July 15th-21st:  Hot most of the week with thunderstorms chances on Monday and Tuesday, then Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s the days with thunderstorms.

July 22nd-28th:  Another hot week with pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s thunderstorm days.

July 29th-August 5th:  Mainly a hot week with highs in the 90s or 100s.  Slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday the 5th.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1 on Saturday.




Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

Remember that you can sign up for WeatherCall by clicking the WeatherCall link at the top of the page. WeatherCall, in our opinion, is the best tool on the market to keep you safe during severe weather.

Also, we have our free WEATHER APP that lets you access our forecast, blog, radar and weather alerts. We think it’s a must if you own an Apple or Android phone.

Posted in Blog | Leave a comment