Friday Evening Blog: Thunderstorms tonight! More this weekend!

Good Friday evening!  I bet you are ready for the weekend.  I definitely am.  I need to get a lot done over the next couple days as I will be leaving for a long road trip to Yellowstone in a few days.  I better mow the grass short before I go.  We have had great temperatures the past few days but the heat will start to kick back in.  Also we have some thunderstorm chances.  Look at the radar below.  These storms are cruising across KS but will lose some steam as they make it here.

 

We will have scattered storms close to the midnight hour in SE KS and NE OK.  But I think they will be weakening quickly.

We could have some additional thunderstorms in the morning, but mainly the southern half of the region.

Thunderstorms will fire again tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Again, these should mainly stay south of I-44 and really I think most of them will be just south of the viewing area.  However, the ones that pop up could be severe, so I will keep my eyes on them.

Additional thunderstorm chances Sunday through Tuesday with our next wave.

You can see the wave just west of us.  This is right on track with the Heady Pattern and the 47 day cycle this year.  Lets go back one cycle to May 9th.

These waves line up about as perfectly as they possibly can.  Check out my long range forecast below based off the Heady Pattern.

Doug

Here is your 7-day forecast:

Lets check out the Heady Pattern and your long range forecast.

Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Long range forecast through July

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Back into the 90s through the week with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  The rest of the week mainly dry with highs well into the 90s with heat indices above 100 degrees.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 3 on Sunday, 2’s Monday and Tuesday.

July 1st-7th:  Hot all week with pop up storms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, then again on Friday and Saturday.  Severe weather index:  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s through the period.

July 8th-14th:  Hot through Wednesday, but warm temperatures return for Thursday through Saturday.  A few thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s on Wednesday and Thursday.

July 15th-21st:  Hot most of the week with thunderstorms chances on Monday and Tuesday, then Friday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  2’s the days with thunderstorms.

July 22nd-28th:  Another hot week with pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale.  1’s thunderstorm days.

July 29th-August 5th:  Mainly a hot week with highs in the 90s or 100s.  Slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday the 5th.  This is the chances for severe weather on a 1-10 scale. 1 on Saturday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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